rental rates for railway cars will increase until 2025

Rental rates for the main types of railway cars will increase in the next two years, the Operators Information Center (IOC) predicts. Beyond the horizon of 2026, growth of 7–9% per year will remain in the segments of gondola cars, tank cars and cement tankers, while in the highly expensive grain carriers the rate will reach a peak in 2025. Its growth, according to ISC estimates, is influenced by an increase in wagon turnover and mass write-offs.

Rates for the provision of main types of rolling stock will gradually increase until 2030, according to the forecast of the Operators Information Center. Demand in the most massive segment of the fleet – gondola cars (47% of the total fleet as of October) – is characterized in the study as “stablely high, limited by infrastructure development in key areas.” Rates are recovering after a sharp decline in May-July 2022.

ICO experts note the common problem for all types of rolling stock of increasing turnover (by 13% from 2021 for gondola cars), which stimulates the purchase of new cars. At the same time, the possibilities of their production are limited, and their prices are rising.

The main driver of growth in the freight base for gondola cars will remain coal and construction cargo, the growth of transportation of which by 2030 experts predict at 7.2% and 9.6%, respectively, compared to 2023. The second driver will be write-offs. According to ISC estimates, the retirement of gondola cars by 2025 will be about 12 thousand units, while in 2026–2030 about 100 thousand gondola cars, or 17% of the fleet, will be written off. In this regard, rental rates are expected to increase at 19% and 14% in 2024 and 2025 and then at an average of 7% until 2030.

In the tank car segment, the problem of high prices for new cars is even more noticeable due to the earlier onset of the period of mass write-offs (minus 20% for 2024–2028). Currently, the segment has a minimum fleet surplus of 7%, periodically decreasing to 1%, while a comfortable surplus should be higher due to seasonality of demand, restrictions on permitted types of oil cargo, as well as difficulties in switching from transporting light oil products to dark oil products and vice versa. The PPI estimates rate growth at 28% and 24% in 2024 and 2025 and at 8% per year until 2030. ICO predicts even better average annual dynamics (9% in 2026–2030) for cement tankers, where the fleet deficit is expected to continue despite stable demand. In the near future (2024–2025), rates should increase by 22% per year.

The most striking segment, where rates are driven by high demand, is grain trucks.

“Last year’s record harvest (the largest in five years) created a deficit in the fall of last year and inflated prices for grain carriers by 83% in December 2022 compared to August of the same year,” noted the ICO. “Last year’s reserves were not able to be exported before the start of harvesting a new harvest, which, although it will be smaller, will, according to experts, take second place in the last five years.” The shortage of grain carriers is aggravated by a 12% increase in turnover by 2021 and the write-off of 10% of the fleet in 2023. Nevertheless, analysts predict that the shortage of grain carriers will gradually decrease as a new fleet is built and the situation on the network stabilizes. While rates, which jumped 37% in 2023, will continue to rise at slowing rates of 24% and 9% in 2024-25, rates are then projected to fall by about 6% per year until 2030.

The head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, notes that it is not entirely clear what rental rates (under existing contracts or those concluded, spot or long-term) formed the basis of the forecast, since, according to his estimates, rates for gondola cars, oil-gasoline tanks and mineral carriers are very high. underestimated. Thus, he notes, for standard gondola cars the rental rate for contracts for a period of one year has already come close to 3 thousand rubles. per car per day and after increasing tariffs from December 1, it may increase further, while the study indicates 2.04 thousand. The same applies to tanks (2.2 thousand versus 1.7 thousand rubles). At the same time, the rate for grain carriers, on the contrary, is too high, and, according to Mr. Burmistrov’s estimates, even taking into account the sharp increase, it did not exceed an average of 3.5 thousand rubles for the entire 2023. He notes that the rental rate for grain carriers is directly affected by the size of the harvest and the availability of specialized terminals alternative to the Black Sea ones: while the special military operation continues, the difficult situation in the southern ports will continue, but it is unlikely that the rates will rise above 5 thousand rubles. on average in 2024.

Natalya Skorlygina