Rent is not supported by demand – Business – Kommersant

Limited demand and increased supply continue to put pressure on long-term rental prices in Russia’s largest regional markets, with prices slowly declining. This forces owners to more actively meet potential tenants by providing discounts. The most loyal are homeowners who bought real estate with a mortgage and are now seeking to reduce their own debt burden. In the spring, rental demand may begin to grow, but the market is highly dependent on external factors, the impact of which is difficult to predict, analysts say.

The average cost of long-term rental of one-room apartments in 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in February amounted to 21.2 thousand rubles. per month, two-room apartments – 30.5 thousand rubles. Relative to January, these figures decreased by 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively. Such data is provided by Cyan.Analytics. The main trend in the market has not changed: average rates continue to slowly decline, the company explains.

According to Etazhi estimates, the average cost of renting one-room apartments in large cities of the country is now 21 thousand rubles. per month, two-room apartments – 25.5 thousand rubles.

Relative to January, analysts also recorded a slight decrease in these indicators, less than 1%.

The most pronounced decrease in the average cost of rent per month, according to the calculations of Cyan.Analytics, was in Voronezh. One-room apartments in the city fell in price by 5.5%, to 15.4 thousand rubles. per month. IN Krasnoyarsk the decrease for the same period amounted to 4.6%, to 18.8 thousand rubles. per month. The weighted average cost of rent in St. Petersburg Analysts of “Avito Real Estate” estimate at 26 thousand rubles. per month. By January, the indicator decreased by 3.7%, by February last year – by 13.3%.

In “Etazhy” they noticed a reduction of 1.7% in the average cost of renting “odnushki” in Omsk, up to 15.74 thousand rubles. per month. But the dynamics in the regions are diverse. IN Nizhny Novgorod the average cost of renting “odnushki” per month, according to Cyan.Analitiki, increased by 6.4%, to 21.5 thousand rubles. per month. IN Tyumen, according to the “Floors”, apartments have risen in price by 1.4%, up to 18.35 thousand rubles. per month. IN Rostov-on-Don monthly increase of about 1%, up to 19.8 thousand rubles. per month.

IN Moscow, according to Cyan.Analitiki, the average cost of renting one-room apartments in February amounted to 43.5 thousand rubles. per month. Over the month, the indicator increased by 0.5%, but over the year it decreased by 13%. Oksana Polyakova, deputy director of the apartment rental department at Inkom-Nedvizhimost, points out that the lowest average rate remains in the SEAD – 33 thousand rubles. per month, the highest – in the Central Administrative District, 55 thousand rubles. The expert calls the demand for housing in the mass segment inactive: the market remains seasonally calm, which contributes to increased competition for potential tenants.

The owners, according to the observations of Ms. Polyakova, are mostly willing to bargain, reducing the cost of hiring by 5-10%.

The amount of discounts does not change, but landlords are ready to make other concessions: break the amount of the security deposit, place tenants with children and pets, buy additional necessary items, and so on, the expert says. She adds that when demand is high, loyalty is halved. In the high-budget rental segment, Vladimir Rodionov, head of Apple Real Estate’s rental division, sees a gradual recovery in demand. Although this does not yet lead to an increase in prices: over the year, the rent of expensive apartments in Moscow has fallen in price by 15% or more, this gap still persists.

Although some signs of recovery are already noted in the mass segment. Konstantin Kamenev, head of the Avito Real Estate long-term rental category, states that in February, user interest in ads increased by 7.1% compared to January. The volume of supply for the year, according to the service, increased by 31.6%. But now the dynamics are insignificant. Alexey Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics, says that over the month the total number of long-term rental announcements in the largest regional markets even decreased by 1%, to 58,000 lots.

In addition to fluctuations in supply and demand, the determining factor for the market is the real purchasing power of tenants, says Olga Pavlinova, Director of the Floors Leasing Department.

“Over the past few years, rates have risen so much that they have become unsustainable, as a result, price expectations turned out to be 10-15% lower than the stated rates,” she explains. The expert adds that mortgaged landlords are now playing a big role in dumping: they are ready for a significant discount to reduce their own debt burden.

Oksana Polyakova, in the absence of new shocks, expects a seasonal increase in tenant activity in March-April. But he does not yet see any prerequisites for an increase in prices for apartments. A similar forecast is made by Mrs. Pavlinova. The expert states that in addition to the balance of supply and demand, the situation on the market depends on the affordability of acquiring one’s own housing. “If mortgage rates in the secondary market grow, this may fuel interest in rental housing,” she argues.

Konstantin Kamenev expects that this year the long-term rental market as a whole will have a positive effect on the gradual return of Russians who left the country last year, and the general stabilization of the market. But the external factors affecting the long-term lease market, according to Mr. Popov, are now difficult to unambiguously codify. “On the one hand, economic costs are growing, on the other hand, significant measures of social support for the general population are being implemented,” he argues.

Alexandra Mertsalova