Rates for the provision of gondola cars continue to grow, despite a decrease in the number of wagon shipments

Rates for the provision of gondola cars continue to grow, despite a decrease in the number of wagon shipments. The entire effect of the decrease in shipments was absorbed by the continued growth in the turnover of railcars on the network, that is, the slowdown in traffic – in the gondola segment, it led to the need for such a volume of the fleet that the domestic industry produces in a year. There are no prerequisites for a decrease in turnover, analysts state, expecting that by the summer the fleet on the network will grow to 1.3 million units, which is more than, according to scientific justifications, the railway network can withstand without loss.

The Institute for Natural Monopoly Problems (IPEM) in its monthly monitoring noted that in May compared to April 2023, the number of wagon shipments in the gondola car segment decreased by 0.9%, which should have freed up about 5.5 thousand gondola cars and limited the growth of rental rates and provision of wagons for transportation. However, there was an increase in the turnover of gondola cars by 3.8%, which increased the fleet of cars attracted for transportation by 23 thousand gondola cars, which is approximately the annual volume of their production. IPEM recalls that in 2022, 21.3 thousand gondola cars were produced, in 2021 – 24.5 thousand. The respondents noted an increase in turnover on a loaded and empty flight. As a result, the reduction in wagon shipments did not lead to stabilization of rental rates, IPEM notes: % – on the spot. “At the same time, shippers of construction cargo, in particular crushed stone, note an increase in the rates for providing gondola cars by 10%,” IPEM notes.

The turnover of railcars is unlikely to be seriously reduced as long as there are summer repair windows, says Vladimir Savchuk, Deputy General Director of IPEM. And then everything will depend on the situation on the network – by the end of summer, the number of cars is expected to increase to 1.3 million, which will complicate the movement. Mr. Savchuk recalls that a few years ago, mathematical modeling was done, which showed that the maximum that the network can withstand is 1.25 million cars. “The rate of delivery of wagons is outpacing the development of the network and the rate of growth in loading,” he notes. more and more to carry the same volume of cargo. It’s a vicious circle”. There are no prerequisites for the situation to miraculously “by itself” change for the better in the medium term, he states: it is necessary to implement a set of organizational, technological and, possibly, regulatory solutions in cooperation with transportation participants.

According to Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics, long-term lease rates for gondola cars increased by more than 4% in June against May, while a significant increase was observed in May. Starting July 1, rates are expected to rise by 10% by June. The main growth factor in the conditions of relative stability of transportation and freight turnover, he notes, is the slowdown in the turnover of wagons. Both the military operations in Ukraine and the growing demand for a fleet for new territories, as well as the reorientation of the fleet to work in neighboring countries with a gauge of 1520 (primarily in Kazakhstan), where the situation has improved and rates are 20-30% higher than in Russia. The production of wagons does not cover the deficit, he states, which has already become acute for a number of types of rolling stock and leads to jumps in rates on the spot rental and operating market, as the fleet is not enough to fulfill long-term service contracts.

JSC RZD “Kommersant” reported that the reduction in the total number of car shipments is associated with an increase in group and route shipments, which make it possible to increase the efficiency of transportation compared to wagon shipments. “The total number of wagons involved increased by 2% due to this,” they added.

The slowdown in the turnover of gondola cars in May was caused by downtime not related to the responsibility of Russian Railways, they say in the monopoly, primarily when the cars are under loading, waiting for unloading in ports and without cargo operations. In May, 10,380 empty gondola cars stood idle on non-public tracks every day without cargo operations for more than ten days. “The number of gondola cars delayed in advance due to external factors (outside the responsibility of Russian Railways) exceeded 189 thousand, an increase of 22.5 thousand by April,” says Russian Railways. Including only because of the non-acceptance by the consignees, they explain in the monopoly, almost 30 thousand empty gondola cars were detained, of which more than 7.5 thousand gondola cars were detained within the boundaries of the West Siberian Railway.

Natalya Skorlygina