Railway loading increased by 2% in March

Loading on the net Russian Railways in March 2023 amounted to 109.1 million tons, follows from the operational data of Russian Railways. This is 2% more than in March last year. In February 2023, loading increased by 0.2% year-on-year to 97.2 million tons. Thus, loading growth is accelerating for the second month in a row.

In January, there was a decrease in loading by almost 5% to 99.2 million tons. According to the results of the first quarter of 2023, cargo transportation still shows a negative trend: a drop compared to the same period last year amounted to 0.8% to 305.5 million tons.

In January-March 2023, the loading of grain and building materials increased the most – by 36% to 7.6 million and by 18% to 31 million tons, respectively. Transportation of hard coal increased to 92 million tons (+0.7%), as well as non-ferrous ore and raw sulfur – 4.3 million tons (+1%). Transportation of goods in containers remained at the same level as a year earlier – 28 million tons.

From a geographic point of view, the largest growth in loading over the past quarter fell on the Trans-Baikal (+28.4%), Volga (+9%) and Far Eastern (+8.5%) railways. Absolute values ​​are not given in Russian Railways. Vedomosti sent a request to the company.

The transportation of other cargoes in January-March 2023 decreased: industrial raw materials and molding materials – by 25% (6.2 million tons), timber cargo – by 22% (7 million tons). Loading of ferrous scrap decreased by 14% (almost 17 million tons), chemicals and soda – by 13% (5 million tons), the drop in loading of ferrous metals amounted to almost 8% (16.6 million tons). Transportation of chemical and mineral fertilizers sank by 5% (15.2 million tons), cement – by 4% (4.6 million tons), iron and manganese ore – by 3% (28 million tons), coke and oil with petroleum products by 2% to 2.8 million tons and 55.2 million tons, respectively.

Last year, loading on the Russian Railways network decreased by 3.8% compared to 2021, amounting to 1 billion 234.3 million tons. ferrous scrap (-21.5%), coke (-16%), as well as industrial raw materials and molding materials (-13%).

Such loading results were the worst for 13 years (“Vedomosti wrote about this on December 6, 2022). According to official data from Russian Railways, in recent years, a drop was recorded only in 2020 against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. Then loading on the network amounted to 1.243 trillion tons (-2.7% compared to the previous year).

Alexander Slobodyanik, Head of the Freight Transportation Research Department at the Institute for Natural Monopoly Problems (IPEM), links the growth of the freight base with an increase in the transportation of coal, building materials and grain. “Against the background of a high cargo base of grain, there is a shortage of grain carriers and, as a result, an increase in rates for this type of rolling stock,” explains Slobodyanik. In addition, the expert continues, this year there is a significant surge in the production of hoppers. These are self-unloading bunker freight cars, which also carry grain. “Following the results of two months, their production increased by almost 90%. The hype and deficit in this market are predicted throughout 2023,” summed up Slobodyanik.

According to IPEM forecasts, in the second quarter of 2023, loading on the Russian Railways network will increase by 4.5-5.6% compared to the same period in 2022. The growth in the cargo base, according to Slobodianik, will be due to the fact that last year sanctions and logistical restrictions were introduced, and shippers were only at the beginning of the path of adaptation and building new logistics chains.

Mikhail Burmistrov, General Director of Infoline-Analytics, recalls that, in fact, the loading was “pulled out by building materials and grain cargoes.” According to the expert, the growth in the loading of construction cargo is observed against the backdrop of the active implementation of large infrastructure projects. The expert expects “some deterioration in the dynamics of loading.” According to him, the key challenges for Russian Railways in terms of sending goods, they will be associated with downtime of locomotives in repair depots, abandoned trains and congestion in ports.