PSB predicts an increase in the income of Russian banks in 2023 to 1.5 trillion rubles

According to the results of 2023, the profit of Russian banks can range from 1.2 trillion to 1.5 trillion rubles, that is, more than half of the record income for 2021 (2.4 trillion rubles), follows from forecast Promsvyazbank (PSB). In particular, the credit institution expects a slowdown in mortgage growth and an increase in consumer activity.

The materials of the PSB indicate that the growth of the portfolio of corporate ruble loans will grow by 15%, including small and medium-sized businesses – by 20%. The devaluation of the portfolio will continue, bank experts say, the share of foreign currency corporate loans will decrease from 16% in 2022 to 14-15%.

A slight decrease is predicted in the growth rate of mortgages. According to the PSB, they will decrease from 20% to 12% against the backdrop of an increase in the rate under the preferential program from 7% to 8%. Due to lower average rates, consumer lending growth will accelerate to 10% against 3% last year.

The level of ruble funds of Russian citizens may slow down by 6% compared to 2022, to 8%, due to increased consumer activity. The volume of foreign exchange funds will stop declining due to the gradual increase in the popularity of deposits in the currencies of friendly countries, including yuan, PSB specialists note.

At the end of 2022, the Bank of Russia presented a large report on strategic initiatives in the field of banking regulation and supervision for the medium term. The Central Bank clarified that in the acute phase of the crisis, the regulator activated “an unprecedented package of temporary relief, which is now gradually being phased out.” According to the regulator, a number of usual ways of limiting risks under the new conditions are not working effectively enough and need to be changed.

About what areas of work for 2023 the regulator has determined – in the material “Kommersant” “The Central Bank has marked the way for banks”.

Milena Kostereva