Prices for secondary housing in Russia increased by 1.3–2.2% over the month

Despite the gradual cooling of demand, prices for secondary housing in Russia increased by 1.3–2.2% over the month. Growth was primarily driven by regional markets—in Moscow and St. Petersburg, real estate prices remain stable. But the volume of exposure has already begun to recover, which will gradually lead to increased competition for buyers, forcing sellers to increase discounts. This could help reduce the average supply price, which will be more noticeable in locations with a large volume of recently completed housing.

The average cost of secondary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in October amounted to 134.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, increasing by 1.8% compared to the previous month. Such data is provided in Cyan.Analytics. In September, a similar increase was estimated at 1.6%. According to Etazhi estimates, the average cost of secondary housing in Russia as a whole increased by 1.3% over the month, to 117.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. The average cost of a lot in Avito Real Estate is estimated at 4.7 million rubles. Over the month, the figure increased by 2.2%, over the year – by 14.6%. In Yandex Real Estate, the year-on-year dynamics are estimated at 4%, up to 6.2 million rubles.

Price dynamics on the secondary market in recent months were largely due to consumer excitement on the eve of and immediately after the increase in the key rate.

Owners increased the price, seeing interest in their properties, recall Yandex Real Estate. But in October, positive dynamics persist, despite the general cooling, notes the head of Cyan.Analytics, Alexey Popov. “In the last seven days, targeted ad actions were only 14% lower than during our best week in mid-August,” he says.

The head of the secondary and suburban areas of Avito Real Estate, Sergei Khakhulin, notes a decrease in the activity of potential buyers month-on-month by 5.9%. Year-on-year the decline is less pronounced – 0.6%. Mr. Popov draws attention to the fact that the main contribution to the growth of average prices in the largest markets as a whole is made by the regions.

So, in Chelyabinsk, according to Cian.Analytics, secondary housing prices rose by 4.1% over the month, to 89.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.V Krasnodar the same dynamics amounted to 3.5%, up to 129 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.V Rostov-on-Don — 3.1%, up to 123 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In “Floors” they note an increase of 3.8% in the average indicator in Volgograd, up to 92.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.V Surgut – by 3.1%, to 122.7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. At the same time in St. Petersburg, according to Cian.Analytics, the average cost of housing per month increased by only 0.8%, to 207.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.V Moscow – by 0.5%, to 314.8 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.

According to calculations by the director of the “Secondary Market” direction of the Inkom-Real Estate company Sergei Shloma, a lot in old Moscow now costs an average of 14.43 million rubles. This is 2% less than the same period last year.

Prices demonstrate stability, states Sergei Shloma. This, according to the expert, distinguishes finished housing from new buildings, where the average cost of a lot over the year increased by 12.5%, to 20.91 million rubles. per lot. Although secondary buyers in Moscow remain quite active and sellers of sought-after properties still rarely make discounts, says Mr. Shloma. In the business and premium class segment, their activity decreased by 10–15% over the month, adds Violetta Khachaturova, head of Sales at Apple Real Estate.

Exposition volume in the old Moscow, according to estimates from Inkom-Real Estate, is now 89.11 thousand lots, in New Moscow – 8.65 thousand. By October last year, the values ​​​​increased by 13.4% and 17.7%, respectively. But Sergei Shloma warns that a significant part of the supply is low-liquid properties and often the choice of potential buyers is still limited. A similar problem persists in the high-budget segment, where, according to Violetta Khachaturova, a significant proportion of lots are exhibited at inflated prices.

In total, in the largest regional markets, according to Cian.Analytics, 172 thousand lots are now available. Despite the decline in the indicator by 2% by September, Alexey Popov talks about the restoration of supply volume: in the summer, the rate of its leaching was 7-10% per month. Director of Etazhi Ildar Khusainov adds that owners now begin to look at more properties before purchasing. Over the month, the trading level also increased slightly – from 4.2% to 4.4%. “Sellers have appeared on the market who are worried that they will not have time to sell their apartments during the period of validity of the approved loans, and are ready to meet real buyers halfway,” he argues.

Sergei Shloma suggests that the demand for secondary housing in Moscow in the future may decrease by 30% due to an increase in mortgage rates.

This may further lead to a reduction in prices, but only after a noticeable increase in exposure. “Until the end of the year, the cost of secondary lots will remain at the same level, a decrease is possible after the January holidays,” he predicts.

The subsequent reduction in prices, according to Alexey Popov, will be noticeable mainly in recently completed new buildings, where the offer from the owners competes with lots from the developer. “This is already indirectly visible in the nature of price dynamics in Moscow And Leningrad regions, where there are especially many such proposals,” he argues. Sergei Khakhulin suggests that buyers will generally have more opportunities to get a discount. Ildar Khusainov makes a similar forecast, calling the increase in the level of bargaining during sales an inevitable consequence of increased competition for buyers.

Alexandra Mertsalova