Prices for new buildings in Russia for November 2023

After active sales in August-September, demand for primary real estate in the country’s largest regional markets is slowing down: the activity of potential buyers decreased by more than 11% over the month. But this has not yet affected the dynamics of prices – on average, over the last 30 days they have increased by 2.4%, although the picture in the regions is heterogeneous. In any case, sales are noticeably higher than expected, and so far developers have no need to further stimulate buyers, market officials explain.

The average cost of primary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets in Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) at the beginning of November amounted to 159.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m, increasing by 2.4% in 30 days. Such data is provided in Cyan.Analytics. According to Etazhi’s calculations, in Russia as a whole, the average cost of a primary supply for the month increased by 1.1%, to 122.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. The average price of a lot in new buildings in the country, according to Avito Real Estate, is now 6.36 million rubles. Over the month, the figure increased by 1.5%, over the year – by 4.8%.

Due to high sales in recent months, the dynamics of average prices in the regions remains extremely heterogeneous. In Chelyabinskaccording to Cian.Analysts estimates, The average supply price has increased over the past month by 7.3%, to 133.8 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Krasnoyarsk – by 6.6%, to 134.8 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In “Etazhi” we noticed an increase in the average price by 4% per month In Nizhniy Novgorod, up to 122.4 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Saratov the growth was 4.3%, up to 68 thousand rubles. Simultaneously in Ufa, Leningrad region and Perm new buildings, according to Cian.Analytics estimates, are few fell in price or almost no more expensive.

In Moscow, according to Cyan.Analytics, new buildings are now exhibited for an average of 342.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Over the month, the value increased by 1.5%, year on year – by 7%. In St. Petersburg the dynamics amounted to 1.7% and 7%, respectively, to 252.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

Globally, the excitement in the primary market of new buildings is beginning to slow down. The number of registered equity participation agreements in Moscow at the end of October decreased by 17% compared to September, to 17.6 thousand, according to Cian.Analytika. In St. Petersburg, a similar decrease was 2%, to 9.1 thousand. Statistics by region are not updated as quickly, but the head of the primary direction of Avito Real Estate, Dmitry Alekseev, notes that total user activity over the past month has decreased by 11.6%. He believes that the important reasons for the cooling are the decrease in the availability of mortgages and the completion of the implementation of accumulated demand: buyers who planned transactions have already managed to complete them.

Against this background, the volume of supply in cities with a population of over a million began to grow for the first time in several months. According to calculations by Cian.Analytics, the total number of advertisements in them over the past 30 days has increased by 1%, to 363 thousand. Year on year, according to Avito Real Estate estimates, the figure has increased by 40.7%.

Sales Director at Etazhi Sergei Zaitsev believes that in the medium term the volume of supply will continue to grow, but in the long term it may decrease.

“Developers feel uncertainty in the market due to a lack of understanding of long-term plans for preferential mortgages,” he argues.

The head of Cian.Analytics, Alexey Popov, believes that, despite the existing fluctuations, demand nevertheless remains high: “Activity has decreased, but we are still talking about levels that no one expected to see this year.” Demand in the last 30 days, according to Dmitry Alekseev’s calculations, was indeed 25.2% higher than the figure for the same period last year. Sergei Zaitsev notes that buyers can partially reorient themselves to the primary market from the secondary market due to the availability of preferential mortgage programs there. “The share of new buildings in the structure of mortgage transactions in early November approached 50%, this is a record weekly value over the past year,” he says.

Against this background, developers, according to Mr. Popov, are not yet seeking to stimulate demand. “Business, on the contrary, is trying to take away the latest transactions of rush demand, focusing clients’ attention on possible changes in mortgage conditions and price indexation,” he argues. But if the decline in sales continues, developers, according to Mr. Popov, will still be forced to react by launching various promotions and discounts, he suggests. Although Mr. Alekseev does not rule out that traditional special offers from developers can in any case be expected by the New Year.

Alexandra Mertsalova