Prices for gasoline AI-95 and AI-92 on the stock exchange continue to break records

Prices for gasoline AI-95 and AI-92 on the exchange continue to break records. Thus, the price of AI-92 in the European part of the Russian Federation has exceeded the limit level, if it remains above this level, oil companies will lose multibillion-dollar damper payments within a month. The July damper, most likely, will not be affected by the price increase. Meanwhile, the rise in exchange prices is beginning to increasingly translate into retail prices: according to Rosstat, the rise in the cost of gasoline since the beginning of the year has already exceeded inflation over the same period, which the regulators tried to prevent.

The cost of the main grades of gasoline on the stock exchange SPIMEX has set new records. So, on July 19, AI-95 went up by 1.25%, to 68.07 thousand rubles. per ton, AI-92 – by 1.49%, up to 62.46 thousand rubles. per ton, coming close to the cut-off price, at which, on average, per month, oil companies stop receiving damper subsidies. In 2023, this level is fixed at around 62.59 thousand rubles. per ton. According to the SPIMEX, on July 19, the cost of AI-92 in the European part of Russia exceeded this limit, increasing by 1.84% to 62.65 thousand rubles. per ton. At the same time AI-95 went up by 1.32% to 68.14 thousand rubles. per ton.

It is unlikely that oil companies will lose damper subsidies already in July: for this to happen, it is necessary that the cost of AI-92 remains at the level of about 68 thousand rubles. per ton before the end of the month. It would be extremely unprofitable for oil companies to lose this subsidy, which amounted to 76 billion rubles in June, as it allows refineries supplying fuel to the domestic market to remain profitable. The damper for gasoline for July, according to one of Kommersant’s interlocutors, is expected to be at the level of 25 thousand rubles. per ton, thanks to which a high level of crack spreads (the difference in the price of petroleum products and oil) remains.

According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, the rapid rise in fuel prices since spring was caused by the intentions of the Ministry of Finance to halve damper payments, repairs at refineries, increased consumption, and increased supplies abroad.

It was assumed that from June, wholesale fuel prices will begin to stabilize as preventive repairs at the refinery are completed. But, despite the restoration of production, it was not possible to prevent the increase in quotations, which was facilitated by the weakening of the ruble and the growth of oil prices.

High wholesale prices provoked an increase in fuel prices at gas stations, and the increase in fuel prices already exceeds accumulated inflation. Thus, according to Rosstat, by mid-July prices at gas stations rose by 3.6% compared to the beginning of the year, with cumulative inflation of 3.15%. Prices at gas stations are growing much slower than wholesale quotes, as a result, gas stations accumulate losses when selling gasoline. Particularly sensitive to this are independent gas stations, whose business is entirely dependent on the cost of fuel from refineries. Fuel market expert Mikhail Turukalov notes that the situation with the supply in August may worsen, as part of the refinery plans to begin repairs.

The Ministry of Energy explained that “since fuel prices are not regulated by the state, there may be slight fluctuations in both wholesale and retail prices in individual months, which is generally typical for an economy with market pricing.” At the same time, a margin is maintained in the retail segment, which allows keeping gasoline prices at gas stations within the framework of inflation, the ministry believes. They noted that oil companies are fulfilling the recommendations of the headquarters of the Ministry of Energy to increase shipments to the domestic market by reducing exports.

So far, the efforts of regulators to stabilize the market have not brought significant results. FAS threatened oil companies with antimonopoly cases if they did not increase supply on the market. The service initially proposed increasing the standard for mandatory sales of gasoline on the futures market of the exchange by 1% of production, but Kommersant’s interlocutors are not sure that this measure will correct the situation. Moreover, oil companies oppose such a measure. According to one of Kommersant’s interlocutors, it is advisable to increase the standard not on the forward, but on the spot market. According to him, this approach was discussed at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Novak at the end of June. At the same time, the government instructed to work out the idea of ​​quoting gasoline exports. According to Kommersant’s information, on July 19 at the FAS Exchange Committee, regulators in a tough form called on oil companies to increase production.

Dmitry Kozlov