Preferential mortgage loans are crowding out market loans

The volume of mortgage loans in 2023 will grow by 15-20%, according to the NRA, but may not reach the bankers’ optimistic estimates of 6 trillion rubles. The driver will remain preferential loans, the share of which will exceed 54%, with the bulk of which will fall on family mortgages. The expected increase in the key rate will increase the cost of the banks’ own programs, which will also support the demand for concessional lending. Citizens will have to choose between expensive primary housing at low rates and cheaper secondary housing at higher rates.

At the end of 2023, the volume of mortgage loans may reach 5.5–5.8 trillion rubles, an increase of 15–20% compared to 2022, according to the forecast of the NRA rating agency (Kommersant has read it). According to analysts, banks will satisfy more than half of the demand with preferential loans, the volume of which will amount to 3–3.2 trillion rubles. (growth by 50% year on year). In 2022, according to JSC Dom.RF, the share of preferential mortgage programs was 35% in the total number of loans issued and 46% in monetary terms.

This year, the family mortgage program, which is valid until July 1, 2024, will take up most of the soft loan market. According to analysts, its share will reach 50% in monetary terms and 27% in terms of the number of loans issued. In 2022, according to Dom.RF, this segment accounted for 36% of all in terms of volume and 35% in terms of the number of soft loans issued.

NRA analysts expect that the volume of family mortgage loans issued will double and amount to about 1.6 trillion rubles. According to analysts, the advantage of a family mortgage, along with a reduced rate (maximum 6% per annum versus 8% per annum for preferential mortgages for new buildings), is the ability to refinance an existing mortgage. In addition, it can be reused, and a mortgage with state support at 8% is provided per person once.

At the same time, the total volume of mortgage loans for the first half of 2023, according to Frank RG, has already overcome the mark of 3 trillion rubles. This allows bankers to raise previous forecasts. In particular, according to Anatoly Pechatnikov, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of VTB, the issuance at the end of the year will exceed 6 trillion rubles. During this time, the volume of issuance of Sberbank may exceed 3.5 trillion rubles, VTB – 1.3 trillion rubles, follows from the statements of their top managers.

According to Sergey Gordeiko, the chief expert of Rusipoteka, an optimistic development scenario could lead to the fact that banks will issue 6.5 trillion rubles. mortgages, the pessimistic target is 5.3 trillion rubles. Pressure on demand may be exerted by an increase in the key rate at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank, the expert notes. Banking analysts do not rule out a rate hike at the July 21 meeting from 7.5% to 8%.

According to market participants, the demand for mortgages remains strong, despite the absence of a trend to reduce mortgage rates (currently, average rates excluding preferential programs are at the level of 11% per annum). According to Mr. Gordeiko, mortgage borrowers take out loans at current rates, because they do not expect them to decrease. “Clients realized that the rate of 11% is working, 10% is the best, and 12% is acceptable, so demand does not sag,” he said. At the same time, the difference in payments between rates of 10-12% per annum with an average loan amount (3.7 million rubles) is insignificant, the expert notes.

However, prices in the secondary housing segment are still lower, thus, the difference in payments under the banks’ own programs and preferential state programs is leveled, bankers point out. “It cannot be said that there is a revival in the secondary market,” notes Anton Pavlov, deputy chairman of the board of Absolut Bank, “but we note that part of the client demand has shifted to this segment.”

But given the expected rise in the key rate, the rates on its own mortgage programs, including the purchase of finished housing, will be adjusted to a comparable value, the banker expects. “The increase in rates may lead to some reduction in demand for the purchase of real estate in the secondary market and an increase in issuance under state programs. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the factor that the limits on the main state programs have already been practically exhausted,” says Mr. Pavlov.

However, soft loans can last for a long time. As follows from the recommendations following a round table held at the end of April in the Federation Council, it is recommended to extend the family mortgage until 2030. This can result in additional costs for the budget. As Interfax previously wrote with reference to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, taking into account the current dynamics of disbursements under the Family Mortgage and Preferential Mortgage programs in 2023–2025, additional federal budget funds in the amount of 171.5 billion rubles may be required, including including 75 billion rubles – for “Family Mortgage”.

Olga Sherunkova