Power engineers will earn 9 billion rubles from modernizing thermal generation in 2023

As Kommersant found out, at the end of this year, payments to industry for the energy capacity of modernized thermal power plants will increase threefold, reaching 9 billion rubles. Payments grow as new facilities are launched: in 2022, energy companies commissioned 2.3 GW of updated stations, and in 2023 – another 2.2 GW. So far, payment for their capacity takes up only 1% of the revenue of all power plants for the supply of power, but it will grow every year.

In 2022, the revenue of modernized thermal power plants for energy capacity amounted to 3 billion rubles, as follows from the annual report of the Trading System Administrator (ATS; part of the Market Council, the regulator of energy markets). At the end of this year, consumer payments for the capacity of facilities launched under the modernization program will increase to 9 billion rubles, the Market Council told Kommersant. The payment increases as new facilities are launched.

Energy companies in 2022–2023, according to Kommersant estimates, launched 20 projects to modernize old thermal power plants with a total capacity of 4.5 GW. In 2022, energy companies commissioned nine facilities for 2.3 GW, and by November 2023, another 11 for 2.2 GW. Two facilities of the T Plus company are behind schedule: the power unit of the Perm CHPP-9 for 124.9 MW with a planned launch date of October 1, 2022 and the power unit of the Izhevsk CHPP-2 for 124.9 MW with a planned commissioning date of October 1, 2023. T Plus did not postpone the launch dates of these facilities. T Plus told Kommersant that work at the Perm CHPP-9 is planned to be completed in the spring of 2024, and the implementation of projects at the Izhevsk CHPP-2 will also be completed in 2024. “The adjustment of the timing of commissioning of power units is associated with the search for new suppliers of components, as well as changes to the design documentation,” the company said.

Projects to modernize old thermal power plants pay for themselves at the expense of industry: the wholesale energy market, after the launch of the facility, pays increased payments for its capacity for 15 years. Moreover, in the first year after launch, the facility receives only compensation for operating costs, and in subsequent years the payment increases. In 2024, according to Kommersant’s estimates, the launch of facilities with a total capacity of 2 GW is planned, in 2025 – 6.4 GW, in 2026 – 6.8 GW.

So far, payments for the capacity of modernized thermal power plants take up only about 1% of the total payment for the capacity of all power plants. Thus, in 2022, the volume of payments, according to ATS, amounted to 766 billion rubles. excluding power supplied to the population at regulated tariffs. In 2023, the figure will be about 890 billion rubles, as calculated by the Energy Consumers Community.

The government has developed a modernization program to replace the capacity supply agreement (PDM) mechanism launched in the 2000s. Payments for thermal power plants built in the first wave of CSAs are falling for the third year in a row and in 2023 will drop, according to the Market Council’s forecasts, to 190 billion rubles. In 2024, according to consumer estimates, it will amount to 105 billion rubles. Volumes are decreasing every year, as CSA facilities are gradually entering the market sector of competitive power take-off (CPO).

Despite this, non-market premiums still prevail in the structure of payments for capacity. Thus, in 2022, the volume of revenue for the capacity of nuclear power plants, hydroelectric power plants and renewable energy sources, built under CSA mechanisms, amounted to 297 billion rubles, while the total payment to KOM, judging by the ATS report, amounted to only 246 billion rubles. And this takes into account industry contributions included in the COM payment for the construction of thermal power plants in Crimea and the Kaliningrad region (43.7 billion rubles) and for reducing tariffs in the Far East (35.5 billion rubles).

In 2023, according to the forecast of the Community of Energy Consumers, generation revenue in KOM, excluding surcharges, will reach 305 billion rubles. (34.5% of the total payment for the power of the energy market), and in 2024 – 340 billion rubles. (40%). The main drivers for the growth of payments in COM in 2023 are an increase in the volume of capacity sales in this sector against the backdrop of the expiration of capacity supply terms under DPM for a number of facilities, as well as an increase in the price of COM capacity, which takes into account inflation in 2022, say the Market Council.

Polina Smertina