Potato harvest could fall by 300,000 tons this year

According to the results of 2023, the potato harvest may decrease by 300,000 tons, Deputy Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Oksana Lut said at a meeting in the Ministry of Agriculture with the participation of representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development on March 23, two sources of Vedomosti who were present at the meeting said. Considering that last year the gross harvest of this root crop amounted to 18.7 million tons, the fall is expected at the level of 1.6%.

A decrease in the harvest is expected mainly in personal subsidiary farms (PSP), the deputy minister explained at the meeting. According to her, industrial production is unlikely to be able to cover the retired volumes. But from the point of view of domestic consumption, this should be enough to provide for the population.

At the request of Vedomosti, a representative of the Ministry of Agriculture replied that in 2023 the sown area of ​​potatoes and vegetables in open ground in the organized sector will increase (the estimate does not take into account household plots). It is planned to plant potatoes on a total of 305,000 hectares (in 2022 it was 301,900 hectares), vegetables – on 192,700 hectares (in 2022 – 185,900 hectares).

The representative of the Potato Union believes that the change in the number of sown areas will be associated with the results of the sale of potato residues in the current season. And the balances exceed last year’s, and many peasants will experience difficulties in financing a new sowing company, Tatyana Gubina, head of the union’s apparatus, believes. According to her, farmers had a good harvest last year, which is confirmed by low prices.

This led to the fact that from 40 to 60% of the harvest of individual farms is stored in warehouses, the Vedomosti source in one of the companies estimated the remains in February 2023.

Estimated prices for potatoes fell by 1.5% over the past week and by 13% over the month, Gubin cites data from the Potato Union. In March last year, it was shipped at an average of 25.1 rubles. per kg, and in 2021 – 19 rubles each. per kg, and now – at 13.4 rubles. per kg. These figures were also confirmed by Rusprodsoyuz.

Retailers polled by Vedomosti also noted a decrease in the wholesale cost of potatoes. “Today, purchase prices can reach 20 rubles. per 1 kg, while last year they reached 40-45 rubles. per kg, ”says a representative of Lenta. According to him, in the stores of the network you can buy potatoes at a price of 9.99 rubles. In Magnit, a decrease in potato prices has been recorded since July 2022, but since September it has accelerated, a representative of the retailer noted. According to him, such dynamics is due to a good harvest of this crop and large volumes of supply from domestic producers.

“In the agricultural sector, the high prices of the previous season often encourage the players in this market to expand the acreage,” explains Dmitry Leonov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Rusprodsoyuz Association. Then a good harvest boosts supply and prices fall, reducing further interest in growing the crop, he said.

There is an overabundance of supply on the market, because of which the marginality of farms suffers greatly, Gubina believes. Therefore, according to her, there may be objective reasons for the reduction in crops associated with low prices. But this mainly concerns small farming companies that change the types of crops sown in different years, focusing on market demand.

Gubina says that large companies are unlikely to reduce production volumes. This is agreed, in particular, in Miratorg. The manufacturer plans to increase the sown area for commercial potatoes in the Tula and Bryansk regions, which is associated with the development of its own processing, the representative of the holding explained.

In February-March, retailers begin to buy new crop foreign potatoes, reducing demand for domestic ones. So far, for the most popular assortment items (for example, unwashed potatoes of a certain caliber in 25 kg nets or packaged washed potatoes in nets), retail chains do not close the shelf for Russian root crops, Gubina notes. But, according to her, there are already foreign potatoes in stores, according to the current monitoring of retail, now its share in the networks is 11.2%, and Russian – 88.8%.

In January 2023, potato imports amounted to 5,100 tons, which is 4.5% higher than last year, Leonov adds. Egypt provided the main supplies – 4600 tons, 45.5% more than in January 2022. In particular, in Vkusville, the share of Egyptian potatoes in the assortment is about 25%, says a network representative. In Magnit, imported potatoes are an additional assortment and occupy a small share, the representative of the retailer noted.

When buying, chains often prefer imported potatoes because of their larger size and attractive appearance, although domestic ones are not inferior in quality and taste, Leonov said. “There is a situation in which domestic producers cannot sell the rest of marketable products due to the lack of agreements with retail trade and are forced to write off or give it for processing at lower prices. This reduces the interest in expanding the area under crops,” the expert sums up. The situation with the sown areas will clear up at the end of April, Gubina says.