Platinum went to overtake – Kommersant

The cost of platinum on the world market for the first time since the beginning of the year rose above the level of $1.1 thousand per troy ounce. For three weeks, the metal has risen in price by more than 12%. Palladium also gained more than 13% in price over this period, exceeding the level of $1.6 thousand per ounce. The current rise in platinum group metals is associated with a high share of industrial demand for them, which is growing against the background of a strong economic recovery in China.

On Thursday, April 20, the price of platinum for the first time since the beginning of the year exceeded $1,100 per troy ounce. The metal was trading at $1,101 an ounce, up 3.8% on Wednesday and up 12% from the start of the month, according to Investing.com. During this time, palladium rose in price by almost 13%, exceeding the level of $1.6 thousand per ounce.

As a result, in terms of dynamics, they caught up with precious metals (gold and silver), which have been rapidly growing in price since the beginning of March against the backdrop of the banking crisis in the US and steps taken to stop it by the Fed. By the end of the first ten days of April, they rose in price by 10% and 24%, respectively. Moreover, gold quotes exceeded $2 thousand per ounce, while silver quotes approached $25 per ounce, that is, to values ​​close to annual highs. By that time, platinum and palladium had risen in price only by 5.8% and 3.4%, respectively. Stronger growth of these metals was hampered by fears that problems with credit institutions could lead to an inevitable recession in the global economy. “Despite the fact that platinum and palladium are classified as precious metals, their use in industry is very large. In this regard, pricing is largely influenced by the balance of supply and demand,” SberCIB Investment Research analysts say.

In recent days, gold and silver have been trading in a narrow corridor near the previously reached levels – $2 thousand per ounce and $25 per ounce. The outstripping growth rates of platinum and palladium are associated with improved expectations for the global economy and, in particular, for the Chinese economy. At the beginning of the week, the state statistical office of the country reported that in the first quarter of 2023, the economy grew by 4.5% in annual terms. Thus, the growth rate accelerated significantly compared to 2.9% in the fourth quarter of last year. Analysts had expected a less significant rise – only 4%.

Along with the recovery of the economy, car sales in the country are also growing. Oksana Lukicheva, commodity market analyst at Otkritie Investments, notes that car retail sales in China grew by 11.5% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, which allows us to hope for a recovery in industrial consumption of palladium and platinum, as well as growth imports of these metals to China. “There is also a certain shortage of platinum group metals in Western markets after restrictions on supplies from Russia,” says Yevgeny Mironyuk, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments.

In the future, the cost of metals will be determined not only by the growth rate of the Chinese economy, but also by the Fed’s monetary policy and, as a result, estimates of the dynamics of the US economy, said Dmitry Skryabin, head of Alfa Capital. At the same time, SberCIB Investment Research analysts note that platinum has more growth potential in the medium term due to its use in diesel and hybrid cars, as well as electric cars. “At the same time, the use of palladium is narrower – it is necessary in the production of cars with gasoline engines, which limits its use in the context of the green agenda,” experts say. According to Oksana Lukicheva, platinum may rise in price to $1.2-1.25 thousand per ounce, but the analyst does not expect prices to rise above this level.

Vitaly Gaidaev