Overview and forecast of prices for resale property for March 2023

After a long period of price decline, the situation in the secondary markets of the largest cities began to stabilize. Although the growth in value is still typical for the regions rather than for Moscow and St. Petersburg. Analysts do not exclude that ready-made housing is about to receive a new impetus to demand due to inflated prices for new buildings. But the dynamics of the value of secondary real estate will depend on the behavior of developers in the future. In the event of a decrease in prices for the primary offer, the owners will also have to adjust them.

The average cost of secondary real estate in 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in March amounted to 124.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m, an increase of 0.5% over the month. Such data was provided by CIAN.Analitika. It is possible to record the achievement of a local minimum: the decline in nominal prices and the growth in the volume of active supply have stopped, experts explain. According to the estimates of “Etazhy”, in Russia as a whole, the “secondary” now costs 94 thousand rubles. Over the month, the value increased by 0.6%. There has been a change in the trend of reducing the real sale price, says the director of “Etazhy” Ildar Khusainov. The expert draws attention not only to this, but also to the reduction from 5.9% to 4.8% of the average discount.

The most pronounced increase the average nominal value of secondary housing for the month, according to CIAN.Analytics, there was In Volgograd — by 2.4%, up to 85.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Chelyabinsk the dynamics amounted to 2.1%, up to 72.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In “Etazhy” pay attention to the growth of the average cost of real estate In Perm by 2.3% per month, up to 93.4 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Simultaneously in St. Petersburgaccording to analysts, the figure for the month shrunk by 0.1%, up to 188 thousand rubles. per sq. m. “The higher the absolute values ​​of average prices, the more noticeable their decline in the last year and vice versa,” says Alexei Popov, head of CIAN.Analitiki. The expert attributes this to the active growth of supply: investment lots entered the markets of the largest cities.

In Moscow The average cost of supply in the secondary market, according to CIAN.Analytics, is now 301.4 thousand rubles. per sq. m. For the month, the indicator has not changed, and for the year it decreased by 3.5%. Sergei Shloma, director of the secondary market division at Inkom-Nedvizhimost, calls the situation generally calm: the owners are aware of the situation, setting an adequate market price for their properties, as a result, liquid apartments are sold in just a week. In the high-budget segment, according to the CEO of Apple Real Estate Danila Savchenko, stabilization has also been outlined: buyers who have postponed transactions are gradually returning to the market of the capital.

But the expert also draws attention to the continued influx of supply. “Many people want to go into cash to be more mobile in case the geopolitical situation changes,” he explains.

In general, according to the calculations of the head of the secondary direction of Avito Nedvizhimost Sergey Khakhulin, the supply of secondary real estate increased by 7.6% over the month, and by 21.4% over the year. This is largely due to the increase in the average exposure time, he notes. Demand for the month decreased by 10-12%, adds Alexei Popov.

Although Mr. Khakhulin does not rule out that in the future buyers will more often opt for secondary real estate, guided by the fact that prices for it are now lower than in the primary market. But this is typical only for the largest regional markets, and Alexey Popov is not ready to call the trend all-Russian. “The situation arose due to the combined influence of two factors – differences in the level of mortgage rates and large volumes of supply concentrated in new large residential areas, here an unusually large number of lots are formed within the same location from both developers and investors,” he explains. .

Against this background, Sergei Shloma believes that new buildings remain very overvalued, while prices have noticeably corrected in the secondary market.

In the future, according to the expert, the dynamics will largely depend on the behavior of developers: “If they make some kind of centralized decision to reduce prices and the banks agree on new financial plans for them, it is likely that the secondary companies will have to lower prices even more.” This could lead to an increase in the cost of mortgage loans in the event of an increase in the key rate, he does not exclude. Although Ildar Khusainov does not rule out that the cost of selling secondary housing will grow, but rather due to a reduction in the amount of discounts. He does not yet predict radical changes in the market.

Alexandra Mertsalova