Over the course of a year, the number of transactions with expensive new buildings in Sochi may decrease by almost one and a half times
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The growth of interest in luxury real estate in Sochi has given way to a decline: over the year, the number of transactions with expensive new buildings may decrease by almost one and a half times. Potential buyers are scared off by the general overheating of this market and prices that have more than tripled over the past year. Local developers have taken a wait-and-see approach, without forcing the introduction of new projects to the market. The development of the Sochi real estate market will continue due to the mass segment, where the outflow of demand has not yet been felt.
In the primary luxury real estate market of Sochi, by the end of 2023, no more than 40 transactions may be concluded, which is 45% less year on year, NF Group predicts. Analysts attribute this situation to the overheating of the Sochi market and the persistence of high prices. Nika Estate owner Viktor Sadygov talks about a decrease in realized demand, although the flow of customers remains high.
The expert considers the problem to be a shortage of supply of premium space: “Now properties are being sold either at completely unimaginable prices or do not meet the standards of luxury real estate.”
The latest wave of growing interest in real estate in Sochi began against the backdrop of massive restrictions during the pandemic. In 2021–2022, the resort led in terms of growth in housing prices in Russia, surpassing even Moscow (see “Kommersant” dated February 22). But this year the trend began to change. According to NF Group, the average cost of luxury new buildings in Sochi is now 2.5 million rubles. for 1 sq. m, which is an increase of only 4% year on year.
The situation in the segment of elite new buildings in Sochi is still worse than in the mass market, where, according to the head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexei Popov, 580 transactions were concluded in September this year, which is a record for the last three years. In October, however, sales decreased by 10-12% after the rush in August-September. Mr. Popov says that Sochi is a specific market where not all objects are sold within the framework of the law on shared construction.
According to bnMap.pro, currently in Sochi there are a total of 10.2 thousand apartments and apartments in the mass segment for sale with a total area of 416.4 thousand square meters. m.
Year on year, the figures increased by 53% and 57%, respectively. The average cost over the year increased by 14%, to 618.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, purchase budget – by 9%, to 26.1 million rubles.
bnMap.pro analysts attribute the general increase in prices for Sochi new buildings to high construction activity: 17 projects were launched over the past year. At the same time, in the elite segment, the policy of developers seems more restrained. According to NF Group estimates, there are 12 thousand sq. m. m, or 104 apartments. Golden Brown Group CEO Tatyana Burlakovskaya agrees that there are few premium projects on the Sochi market.
At the same time, the developers of elite new buildings in Sochi themselves are not yet ready to talk about the limited activity of buyers and a change in the trend in the market.
Five commercial director Elena Kabesheva calls customer demand stable. Deputy Commercial Director of Neometry Anna Sapegina says that in the price segment from 1.5 million rubles. for 1 sq. m, a decrease in buyer interest is not recorded. “Prices are rising all year round, and developers do not plan to reduce them,” she adds. The expert proceeds from the fact that there are currently no analogues to Sochi in terms of the combination of climatic conditions and the level of infrastructure development in the country.
Viktor Sadygov does not expect prices to decline in the elite segment, pointing to an increase in construction costs. Tatyana Burlakovskaya adds that large discounts contradict the economics of premium projects. “During the period of active demand, a sufficient amount of real estate was sold, so developers now have no motivation to rush to provide discounts: they are waiting for a new wave of high demand,” notes NF Group partner Andrey Solovyov.
At the same time, in the mass segment, according to Mr. Sadigov, buyers are often stimulated by reduced mortgage rates or installment plans. But at the same time, he notes, prices in this segment in Sochi still remain very high – about 400 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.
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