OPEC retains oil production growth forecasts outside the organization

OPEC estimates that growth in oil production outside the organization will be 1.9 million barrels per day in 2022. In 2023, the indicator is expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day, to 67.2 million barrels per day. Accordingly, OPEC has not changed its forecasts for the growth of oil production, follows from the January report of the organization (.pdf)

In December 2022, according to OPEC estimates, non-organizational production increased by 0.2 million barrels per day compared to previous months and amounted to 72.8 million barrels per day. This is 2.8 million barrels per day more than in 2021. The organization believes that the figure grew due to the countries of Europe and Latin America included in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, as well as due to a decrease in production in the United States and Russia.

It follows from the report that the largest increase in oil production in 2022 is observed in the United States, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil. The organization recorded a strong decline in Norway and Thailand. It is expected that in 2023 the increase in the indicator will be provided by the United States, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, and the decrease by Russia and Mexico.

On December 5, the price ceiling for Russian oil, introduced by the G7 countries, the European Union and Australia, came into force. It is set at $60 per barrel. Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed reduction in oil production as a response to the introduction of the ceiling. At the same time, at a meeting on December 4, OPEC + accepted decision not to cut production.

Lusine Balasyan