OPEC lowered the forecast for the growth of oil production of countries outside the organization by 150 thousand barrels per day in 2023

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has lowered its forecast for growth in supplies of liquid hydrocarbons (oil and gas condensate) from non-OPEC countries in 2023 by 150,000 bpd to 67.01 million bpd. The estimate of oil and condensate production from Russia this year has been reduced by 50,000 bpd to 10.13 million bpd, follows from the February report of the organization.

Thus, OPEC expects growth in non-member liquids supplies to drop to 1.44 million b/d in 2023 from 1.55 million b/d last month. The US production forecast was lowered by 50,000 bpd to 20.14 million bpd. According to OPEC analysts, in 2023 the production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia will decrease by 900,000 bpd in 2023, while in the United States it will increase by 1.11 million bpd.

The report notes that the largest volumes of oil production growth in 2023 among non-OPEC countries will be provided by the United States, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana. The largest decline in production is expected in Russia and Mexico.

In December the organization predicted average production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia in 2023 at the level of 10.1 million b/d. “It should be noted that the outlook for oil in Russia remains highly uncertain,” the analysts noted. On February 12, OPEC Secretary General Haytham al-Ghais said that in 2023 the level of oil demand will exceed pre-pandemic levels and reach 102 million b/d.

Russia in March will voluntarily reduce oil production by 500 thousand b/d, declared February 10, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Reuters reported that OPEC + will not increase production due to Russia’s decision.

Erdni Kagaltynov