Oil refining grows by 3% in June

According to Kommersant, Russian oil companies began to gradually increase fuel production in connection with the completion of repairs at refineries. Thus, in the first half of June, oil refining has already increased by 3% compared to May values, up to 735 thousand tons per day. Against this background, as well as due to harsh warnings from the Federal Antimonopoly Service, the exchange price of gasoline nevertheless began to decline. However, the increase in wholesale fuel prices has already led to an increase in retail prices and losses in the sale of gasoline at filling stations.

The companies increased the daily volumes of oil refining in the Russian Federation in the first two weeks of June by 3% compared to the average values ​​in May, up to 735.5 thousand tons per day, Kommersant sources familiar with the statistics said. Oil companies are gradually restoring the production of petroleum products in connection with the completion of repairs at the refinery. Now it will be easier for companies to fulfill the requirements of regulators to increase sales of gasoline on the exchange, where gasoline prices, primarily AI-95, have been updating historical highs for two weeks. So, on June 19, the cost of AI-92 and AI-95 decreased by 1.4% and 0.5%, to 56.4 thousand rubles. and 64.8 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively.

The cost of gasoline at SPIMEX began to decline from the end of last week, which was preceded by the appeals of the Federal Antimonopoly Service to oil companies with a demand to increase sales on the stock exchange. Otherwise, the service promised to initiate antitrust cases. Corresponding letters, according to Kommersant’s information, were received by all major oil companies, with the exception of Surgutneftegaz (see Kommersant dated June 15).

The increase in wholesale gasoline prices, which has continued almost continuously since April, has already led to the fact that the cost of fuel at gas stations has gone up. However, gas stations under tight control by regulators are not able to raise their prices at the same pace as they rise on the stock exchange. As a result, the net margin of gasoline sales at filling stations has become negative over the past month. The growth of retail prices has not yet exceeded the level of inflation, and since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices at gas stations, according to Rosstat, have increased by 1.6% with inflation of 2.58%. However, last week the head of the Ministry of Energy, Nikolai Shulginov, promised that the situation would stabilize at the end of June after the completion of repairs at the refinery.

The requirement of the Federal Antimonopoly Service for oil companies to increase the exchange sales of gasoline contributed to lower prices, believes Sergei Kondratiev from the Institute of Economics and Finance, but a more significant factor for the market could be an increase in output: last week, gasoline production increased to its maximum values ​​for the last eight weeks (832 thousand tons ).

The cost of gasoline rose not only because of the reduction in production during a period of high demand for fuel. This was also facilitated by the growth of gasoline exports against the backdrop of a high export alternative and a simultaneous reduction in the damper, which is now paid from the budget to oil companies for fuel supplies to the domestic market. The last time the authorities cut damper payments was in April and plan to cut them even further from September (see Kommersant on June 5). The Ministry of Finance expects that in June the government will submit to the State Duma a draft damper adjustment.

After cutting damper payments from September 2022, subsidizing the Russian market turned out to be insufficient, and export parity turned out to be significantly higher than exchange prices since last September, which led to an increase in exports, a Kommersant source in the fuel market notes. In his opinion, as export logistics were restructured, gasoline began to be washed out of the domestic market (since October 2022) and problems fully manifested themselves in the spring of 2023. It is assumed that from September the authorities will halve the damper, which, against the background of the autumn repairs of the refinery, may again create prerequisites for the growth of wholesale prices, he fears. At the same time, according to the head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service Maxim Shaskolsky, the reduction of the damper “in theory can affect prices, but rather time, the effect has already been won back, since everyone was waiting for an adjustment in July.”

Oil companies fear that another reduction in the damper will further lead to a decrease in oil refining due to falling margins. “This can affect the efficiency of refining, those refineries where margins were not high. In this case, profitability may or may not go down. But if she leaves, then this will affect the volume of refining, ”said Alexander Dyukov, head of Gazprom Neft, last week (quote from Interfax). At the same time, the Ministry of Energy sees the risks of underfunding the industry, the possibility of rising wholesale prices and pressure on retail prices, confirmed the head of the ministry, Nikolai Shulginov.

Dmitry Kozlov