Oath on the Trumpet – Kommersant

The leaders of the G7 countries at the upcoming summit at the end of the week will try to impose new sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector. Among the specific measures that the Western media have written about is a potential ban on the future use by European countries of gas pipelines from Russia, through which it has reduced gas supplies. Behind the somewhat Jesuitical wording, apparently, are the sanctions on the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, through which previously Russian gas through Poland got to Germany. Deliveries along this route have already been stopped for a year, and Russia itself has also imposed sanctions against the Polish company that owns the pipe, which excludes its use by Gazprom.

There are several layers of absurdity here. Firstly, since there are no supplies now, in fact the point is that the current Western politicians are trying in advance to prevent their successors from buying Russian gas again. Secondly, no one asks other EU countries (and the G7 includes only Germany, France and Italy), although in theory, for example, the Czech Republic could use the capacities of Yamal-Europe, and the European gas market, generally speaking, is unified. The question arises how, from a legal point of view, potential German sanctions on Yamal-Europe can prevent a Czech or Hungarian trader from booking pipe capacity and safely supplying this gas to the common market. Obviously, in this case, pan-European sanctions will be required, and it is not clear whether Hungary will support them.

Finally, Yamal-Europe is not the only gas pipeline through which Gazprom reduced supplies to Europe in 2022. So, deliveries through Ukraine have fallen three times from the contract ones, however, apparently, they are not proposing to stop transit through the Ukrainian territory of the G7 countries. However, it threatens to be interrupted by itself after the expiration of the transit contract at the end of 2024.

Conspiracy theorists may assume that the assurances of the G7 European countries in the style of “I will not buy Russian gas again in my life, I swear by my mother” are designed to provide a niche for American LNG supplies. But here everything is not so obvious: although American LNG producers are very eager to sell their gas to Europe and are waiting for long-term contracts, the Europeans themselves seem confident that they will manage to do so. According to Reuters, the German authorities in May decided to halve the capacity of future LNG terminals in the Baltic, from 18 billion to 10 billion cubic meters. The fall in demand for gas in 2022 and the de facto phasing out of the chemical industry in Germany make European politicians think that Europe will soon not need additional imported gas and after 2030 expensive LNG import capacities will become a burden. But if this forecast is correct, then Europe will no longer need Russian gas, and then it is not clear why in advance it is so fiercely defended against the prospect of its return.