Novak instructed to work out quotas for the export of petroleum products

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed to work out quotas for exports of oil products from Russia. This was announced on June 30 by the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers following a meeting on the situation on the oil market. “The Deputy Prime Minister instructed the oil companies to respect the priority of gasoline supplies to the domestic market, even in a situation where export seems more profitable, without deriving momentary benefits to the detriment of Russian fuel consumers,” the report says. In addition, the Ministry of Energy, together with the Federal Antimonopoly Service, will have to take measures to prevent the gray export of oil products, and, based on the results of this work, prepare a report to the government.

According to the International Energy Agency, Russia increased the export of oil and petroleum products by 50,000 barrels per day compared to March and brought the daily supply rate to 8.3 million barrels. – the maximum value since the beginning of the NWO in Ukraine.

Novak also supported the FAS proposal to increase the mandatory minimum sales of gasoline on the SPIMEX commodity exchange to 13%. Now the mandatory standard is 12% of the total production for gasoline and 8.5% for diesel fuel. In May, the Antimonopoly Service suggested raising it to 15% and 10.5%, respectively. In June, the Federal Antimonopoly Service called on oil companies to increase sales of gasoline on the stock exchange, as they have fallen by 7.9% over the past five months.

The cost of AI-92 gasoline on the stock exchange on June 22 once again updated its historical maximum of 58,548 rubles per ton. The price of the most popular AI-95 reached a new ceiling on June 15, quotations approached the mark of 67,390 rubles per ton. Now wholesale gasoline prices have started to decline, but the reduction compared to peak values ​​is still minimal. As of June 30, AI-92 was traded at 57,785 rubles/t, AI-95 at 64,812 rubles/t. Wholesale prices for diesel fuel have practically not changed since the beginning of June.

The increase in the cost of gasoline in the wholesale sector began to gradually affect the retail sector as well. Regulators responded to this. The head of the FAS, Maxim Shaskolsky, said on May 24 that the agency was ready to support the restriction of gasoline supplies for export, but such an initiative should come from the Ministry of Energy.

Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov on the same day confirmed that the Ministry of Energy was ready “if necessary” to come up with such a proposal. The fact that the Ministry of Energy at one of the meetings with the participation of oilmen has already recommended, in order to stabilize the situation on the fuel market, to suspend the supply of gasoline abroad and increase the mandatory minimum for the sale of gasoline at SPIMEX, a Vedomosti source also reported.

Experts then associated the rise in wholesale gasoline prices with the start of the repair season at refineries, vacations (which causes an increase in demand for motor fuel) and the government’s plans to reduce payments to oil companies from September 1 as part of the damper mechanism.

At the same time, as Vedomosti wrote, by the end of June, there was a steady trend towards a decrease in exchange prices for liquefied hydrocarbon gases (LHG, a mixture of propane and butane) against the backdrop of the end of the repair season at oil refineries (see the issue of June 28).

According to Rosstat, for the week from June 20 to June 26, an increase in gasoline prices was recorded in 74 regions of the Russian Federation. Most of all, it rose in price in the Chechen Republic and the Kostroma region – by 1.5%, the republics of Altai and Tatarstan, Ryazan region – by 1.4%. In Moscow, over the past period, gasoline prices increased by 0.4%, in St. Petersburg – by 0.3%.

Valery Andrianov, an expert at the InfoTEK Analytical Center, considers the increase in sales standards on the stock exchange an effective measure to reduce prices. But, according to the expert, it should be more significant, up to 25%: “An increase from 12 to 13% is more likely to have a purely psychological effect.”

Igor Yushkov, an analyst with the National Energy Security Fund, adds that independent gas station chains that do not belong to oil companies need to increase exchange rates to stabilize wholesale prices. It is for them that it is difficult to keep prices in retail with a sharp increase in wholesale, which creates risks for the economy of such a business. In terms of the number of gas stations in the country, it is independent chains that dominate, Yushkov notes, although sales volumes are higher at gas stations of oil companies. At the same time, Shulginov said in May that the gross margin of gas stations “remains at a high level.”

“It would not be superfluous to establish the internal distribution of quotas for various brands of gasoline. Today, gasoline 92 accounts for two-thirds of wholesale sales, while gasoline 95 accounts for only one-third. At the same time, the demand for them is approximately the same, and in a number of regions it is more than the 95th,” Andrianov believes.

At the same time, the expert considers the introduction of restrictions (quotas) on the volume of exports of petroleum products as an “untimely measure”. Andrianov points out that because of the sanctions, Russian companies are now forced to rebuild their supply chains in foreign markets, to look for new consumers to replace European ones.

Vedomosti sent inquiries to the largest oil companies.

Alexander Volobuev contributed to the preparation of the article