Not for coal, BAM will spill – Newspaper Kommersant No. 230 (7431) of 12/12/2022

The authorities are discussing the possibility of reducing construction volumes as part of the second stage of the expansion of the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway with their transfer to a later date. In particular, it is proposed to significantly reduce activities at the BAM, which will lead to a decrease in the planned cargo flow to the Vanino-Sovgavan junction. As an alternative, coal miners are offered to switch to the new Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang border crossing. However, they are skeptical about the prospects for sales in the direction where the infrastructure is not even ready. And experts believe that in the current conditions it is possible to “optimize” many projects, but not related, like BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway, with exports.

According to Kommersant’s information, the construction of the second stage of the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway may be seriously revised. In particular, over the horizon of 2024 (when, according to the plan, the second stage should be completed with the achievement of 180 million tons of carrying capacity), 88 objects should go. As a result, the carrying capacity at a number of key sections will fall significantly relative to the plan, follows from the data of the Ministry of Transport, which Kommersant has read.

At the BAM sections Novaya Chara-Tynda and Komsomolsk-Vanino, the throughput capacity at the end of 2024 will be reduced relative to the planned one by 15 pairs of trains per day, or by 23.8 million and 24.1 million tons of cargo per year, respectively. On the Fevralsk-Novy Urgal section – for 14 pairs and 22.7 million tons, Taksimo-Novaya Chara – for 10 pairs and 14 million tons, Ulak-Fevralsk – for 9 pairs and 15.8 million tons, and so on. A significant reduction in carrying capacity without a reduction in train traffic is planned for the Taishet-Ulan-Ude (minus 16.2 million tons), Ulan-Ude-Karymskaya (minus 15 million tons), Volochaevka-Smolyaninovo (minus 11.2 million tons) sections.

An increase in carrying capacity is planned only at the Izvestkovaya-Birobidzhan and Birobidzhan-Volochaevka sections (by 12.3 million and 8.6 million tons, respectively).

The target indicator of the second stage of the expansion of the Eastern polygon, which is included in the plan for the development of the main infrastructure – a carrying capacity of 180 million tons in the east direction – will certainly be achieved in 2024, Kommersant was assured at Russian Railways. But a source familiar with the monopoly’s plans says the company has been “instructed to work out possible optimization” of the parameters of the second and third stages of the development of the Eastern test site to reduce the funding gap. “We are talking about focusing on priority activities that directly affect the throughput and carrying capacity of the infrastructure, and the construction of a number of facilities can be postponed to a later date,” he explains. Following the meeting on December 8, Russian Railways needs to work out approaches to optimization in contact with representatives of the authorities, says the interlocutor of Kommersant.

Kommersant has already said that a number of events from the second stage are going to be moved to the third. The latter now involves a limited range of work for the export of 17 million tons of Elgaugol cargo and a general increase in carrying capacity to 197 million tons by 2028. But in parallel, another set of measures worth about 800 billion rubles is being considered. with the achievement of a carrying capacity of 210 million tons, where objects that do not directly affect the achievement of the bar of 180 million tons will be transferred from the second stage, including the electrification of the Volochaevka-Komsomolsk and Komsomolsk-Vanino lines (see “Kommersant” dated November 22) .

The interlocutors of Kommersant among consumers of Russian Railways say that coal miners who ship products to the Vanino-Sovgavan junction are offered to transport coal to the new border crossing with China Nizhneleninskoye (JAO) – Tongjiang (Heilongjiang province) instead of ports. One of Kommersant’s interlocutors says that the volume of coal cargo that the port of Vanino may lose is 18-20 million tons. The instruction of Russian Railways to work with shippers on the issue of reorienting cargo flows from Vanino to Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang and the ports of Primorsky Krai is contained in the minutes of the meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov dated November 14 (“Kommersant” saw the document).

Railway traffic on the Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang bridge was opened in November. The presidential envoy to the Far East, Yuri Trutnev, reported that at the first stage the planned cargo turnover would be 5.2 million tons per year, and subsequently – 20 million tons. At the WEF, the governor of the JAO, Rostislav Goldstein, said that the border crossing would reach its full capacity of 40 million tons by 2030. However, now, the official specified, there is no infrastructure at the Nizhneleninskoye checkpoint for the acceptance and clearance of goods – it is only for bulk cargo and only for export. The capacity of the branch from Birobidzhan is only 9 million tons.

Kommersant’s interlocutors in the coal industry also claim that there is a “bare field” there, but they say that the problem is much wider: even in the long term, there is no market for thermal coal in the areas of the PRC adjacent to the border crossing.

“Rolling out new directions is good, but they should complement existing distribution channels, and not act as an argument for refusing to expand bottlenecks,” Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline Analytics, emphasizes. According to him, Russian Railways has the opportunity to give discounts to support new directions. The proposal to switch cargo flows to a new border crossing, the expert believes, “is seen as an attempt to abandon the construction of infrastructure facilities that increase throughput, which is very dangerous, because if companies do not export volumes, they will lose those export markets that are not closed by sanctions, suffer losses and will be forced to cut production and production.

Mikhail Burmistrov believes that it is possible to reduce investments in the development of almost any direction, except for BAM, the Trans-Siberian Railway and the ports of the south: now Russian Railways will forgive the delay in the implementation of projects that do not critically affect export opportunities under sanctions.

Natalya Skorlygina