Not all houses have a mortgage – Newspaper Kommersant No. 26 (7471) dated 02/13/2023
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New details of the results of 2022 in the segment of mortgage lending for private homes show that it remains risky for banks and minimal in terms of the total volume of both the mortgage market and private construction. In 2022, the growth was multiple, but the share in the total mortgage loan portfolio only slightly exceeded 1%. At the same time, Sberbank accounts for three-quarters of the market, and the situation is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, experts believe.
“Kommersant” got acquainted with the data of a joint study by Dom.RF and Sberbank’s Domclick service on the mortgage market for individual housing construction (IZHS). It summed up the full results of 2022 in the segment, not only about loans (see Kommersant on January 26), but also about the portfolio of such loans, which allows us to assess the dynamics of the average check and the share of the largest players. Thus, the average mortgage check for individual housing construction increased by 1.1 million rubles, to 4.2 million rubles. This happened “against the backdrop of rising prices for materials and construction work.” Lending volumes are generally small, 181.6 billion rubles, that is, only 1.3% of the total mortgage portfolio in the country.
Mortgage penetration into the IZHS segment is also still low – 6.3% of all transactions. In 2022, 57.2 million sq. m (but in November and December, the volumes fell, see Kommersant of January 27). As clarified by Kommersant in Dom.RF, the construction of 3.6 million sq. m of individual houses, in 2021 – only 1.1 million sq. m.
The largest player, Sberbank, accounts for 75% of the total volume of mortgages for individual housing construction. Rusipoteka’s chief expert, Sergei Gordeiko, believes that the reason is that Sberbank “is not afraid of standard risks, in particular, the lack of liquid collateral.” The capital of the largest bank, unlike others, allows you to take such a risk, the expert explains. In the total volume of mortgages, the share of Sberbank accounts for significantly less – about 50%. The share of other banks will begin to increase if the control mechanisms for this type of construction are transparent, the possibilities of risk insurance are expanded, and the preferential mortgage program for individual housing construction will be in demand on the market, said Konstantin Borodulin, director of NRA banking ratings.
There is a demand for the product, but it significantly depends on the proposed conditions, and since the potential risks of default are included in the cost of the loan, they are of interest to the consumer only if these programs are subsidized by the state, Mr. Borodulin notes. “In the IZhS segment, there is now a fairly large volume of objects that are being built, illiquid, mainly due to the lack of road and social infrastructure. In addition to collateral, big problems remain with contractors, – says Sergey Gordeiko. – If a person builds housing not by economic means (that is, organizing it by independent forces), then the rise in the cost of housing can be from 30-40% at least.
For banks, such problems (bad estimates, delays in introduction, etc.) may result in additional accrual of increased reserves, Mr. Gordeiko emphasizes. This market will be able to grow, in his opinion, for example, “if there is complete order in land relations, in carrying out construction work without their rise in price.” “Banks want to issue such loans at regular mortgage rates, but the risks of loans for individual housing construction in the absence of collateral can be equated to the risks of unsecured consumer loans,” the expert says. “And this dissonance is difficult to eliminate. In favor of individual housing construction, the psychological factor of attitude towards one’s real estate can work, which will sharply reduce the risks.” The accumulation of statistics on the behavior of the portfolio of loans for individual housing construction will help answer this question, Sergei Gordeiko clarifies.
The extension, albeit at an increased rate, of preferential mortgages with state support (see Kommersant dated December 16, 2022), will have a positive impact on the dynamics of the individual housing construction segment, according to Yegor Lopatin, deputy director of the financial institutions rating group of the NKR agency. “The rate of its growth will largely depend on the macroeconomic situation, if it does not worsen, we can expect moderately positive dynamics at the end of the year,” he clarifies. The authors of the study believe that the solution could be a new mechanism – industrial housing construction, under which citizens’ funds will be attracted to escrow accounts, and the contractor will carry out construction using project financing, as happens in the construction of apartment buildings.
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