Moscow is covered with forests – Kommersant
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Two large regions of the country in terms of construction volume – Moscow and the Moscow region – showed opposite results in the first quarter of this year. In the capital, the volume of such work increased by 15.2%, to 330 billion rubles, including through the construction of transport facilities, while in the region, on the contrary, it decreased by about the same amount. The revival in the Moscow market contributed to the influx of regional developers into the city, which already account for 10% of the volume of future projects.
In January-March 2023, the volume of construction work in Moscow in comparable prices increased by 15.2%, to 330 billion rubles, calculated by Sherpa Group. This is almost two times higher than the average level throughout Russia, where the figure increased by 8.8% to 2.26 trillion rubles. Such dynamics in Moscow is associated with the implementation of large projects in the transport infrastructure, explains Sherpa Group CEO Alexandra Galaktionova.
However, the revival began in the segment of housing construction. According to Nash.Dom.RF, in January-March 2023, the city completed the construction of 1.96 million square meters. m of housing, which is 25% more year on year.
The current situation attracts regional players to the capital market, which, according to the estimates of Natalia Kuznetsova, general director of NDV Real Estate Supermarket, account for 10% of 232 projects, the implementation of which may begin in the next two years. That is, we are talking about sites for which permits have been received from the city authorities. Previously, developers from the regions accounted for 3% of projects in Moscow. “A few years ago, such companies could be counted on the fingers of one hand, but now their list has expanded,” says Roman Rodiontsev, director of the Est-a-Tet project consulting department.
Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium, adds that 14 regional developers of companies are currently working in Moscow. Commercial Director of “Neometry” Olga Nart calls the large volume of demand an important argument for regional developers to enter Moscow.
According to the calculations of Alexander Andrianov, vice-president of GloraX, the profitability of development projects in Moscow is now 15-20%, and in the regions – about 10%. The low level of profitability of regional projects makes it difficult to obtain project financing, he adds.
Executive Director of Glincom Ivan Tatarinov draws attention to the fact that the housing market is now generally not very attractive due to the restrained activity of buyers. But in large cities the situation is traditionally comparatively better than in small regional markets, he notes.
The negative dynamics in the regions can also be seen in the example of the Moscow region: in the first three months of this year, the volume of construction work here decreased by 15.6% year-on-year, to 123.5 billion rubles. Commissioning of housing in the region decreased by 36% year-on-year, to almost 3 million square meters. m. “Demand in the market of Moscow and the Moscow region has changed in different proportions, not in favor of the region,” says Vladislav Preobrazhensky, executive director of the Moscow Investors Club.
However, Alexandra Galaktionova does not rule out that new construction in the Moscow region will be introduced at the expense of concession agreements signed in previous years. In addition, she continues, the region is counting on investments from the federal budget within the framework of national projects.
Ruslan Syrtsov predicts that in the future it will be possible to see other attempts by regional developers to enter the Moscow market: for example, they can take part in auctions as part of projects for the integrated development of territories. At the same time, Key Capital Consulting and Development Director Evelina Ishmetova notes that it can be difficult for regional developers to work in Moscow without understanding how the approval system works. Ivan Tatarinov states that many regional developers start working in Moscow by buying sites, the development of which has already been approved by the mayor’s office.
But the prospects for all developers in the Moscow market as a whole are highly dependent on further market conditions. Aleksey Khizhnyak, a member of the Moscow regional branch of Delovaya Rossiya, is counting on further growth in construction volumes in the city, despite the current decline in the purchasing power of the population. The currently observed decrease in sales, according to the expert, “is of a short-term nature and in the near future the dynamics will again become positive.” However, as Vladislav Preobrazhensky notes, in general, economic activity in construction will depend on the cost of loans, which is directly affected by the key rate of the Central Bank.
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