Minsk is doing well
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The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has released a new report on the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Experts believe that a warehouse near the city of Osipovichi, Mogilev region, where the Russian Iskander-M dual-use operational-tactical missile systems were deployed, was modernized for these purposes. However, experts cannot yet say with confidence that nuclear warheads have already been deployed there, although Western officials are now talking about this publicly.
Experts from Western countries specializing in open source intelligence (OSINT) have been searching for sites in Belarus suitable for storing nuclear weapons since Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko approached his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in 2022 with a request to place them on the territory of the republic. appropriate weapons. And here is the authoritative Federation of American Scientists (FAS) announcedthat at least one such storage is installed.
We are talking about a warehouse at a military base a few kilometers from the city of Osipovichi, Mogilev region. The facility has been upgraded to include additional security perimeters and checkpoints, making it suitable for storing nuclear warheads for the Russian-supplied Iskander-M dual-use operational-tactical systems to Belarus, according to a new FAS review.
This warehouse attracted particular attention from experts after the publication of a number of secret CIA documents on the Discord website as part of a leak that occurred due to the fault of American serviceman Jake Teixeira (see “Kommersant” dated April 15, 2023).
One of the files he released spoke about the interception of a conversation between high-ranking representatives of the Russian and Belarusian defense ministries, discussing on February 22, 2023, suitable sites for storing Russian tactical nuclear weapons. In addition, the secret document indicated that shortly after this conversation, a high-ranking Russian military officer inspected a warehouse near Osipovichi “for possible modernization.”
FAS researchers Hans Christensen and Matt Korda published the first report on the state of affairs at this site last summer. They observed the construction work in this place using commercial satellite images from Maxar Technologies.
However, initially experts were not sure that the weapons depot near Osipovichi was being modernized to store nuclear weapons – in particular, since the security perimeter being built around it had only a double fence (see “Kommersant” dated July 8, 2023).
From their second report, however, it follows that there are now four contours of fences around the storage facility, and a covered, permanently guarded checkpoint has appeared at the entrance. During the construction of additional perimeters, as stated in the review, significant excavation work was carried out to lay cables and various sensors. In addition, trees were cut down approximately 20 m from the fourth contour (apparently this is a control strip). The warehouse itself is located on a military base, surrounded by another fence.
Taking into account the work carried out, this storage facility, as stated in the FAS report, now “better corresponds to the level of physical protection that Russian authorities require for the storage of nuclear weapons.” Experts, however, are not sure that nuclear warheads are actually stored at this facility.
In a media commentary, Hans Christensen mentions another object that has aroused the interest of researchers. It is located near the town of Prudok in the Gomel region. But so far FAS does not have enough data to make any meaningful conclusions about the purpose of the structures discovered there.
Alexander Lukashenko publicly asked Vladimir Putin to place Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus in June 2022. The Belarusian leader referred to the fact that American nuclear bombs are stored at the bases of a number of European countries, and called on his Russian colleague to “consider the issue of a mirror response.” Vladimir Putin agreed. Six months later, the parties announced that they were starting to implement the plan (see “Kommersant” dated December 21, 2022). In March 2023, Vladimir Putin said that Russia transferred the Iskander-M complex to Belarus and helped convert Belarusian aircraft for missions involving nuclear weapons. At the same time, he announced that a special storage facility for nuclear warheads was being built on the territory of Belarus, without specifying its location (see “Kommersant” dated March 28, 2023). In July, Alexander Lukashenko announced that nuclear weapons had already been delivered to his country, and boasted that this had been done without anyone in the West noticing. At the same time, he said that on the territory of Belarus there are warehouses suitable for storing nuclear weapons “like dogs in the village,” since Soviet nuclear weapons were stored there until 1996. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg then confirmed that the alliance “sees preparations” for the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, but did not provide details.
Thursday magazine Foreign Policy published an article entitled “Russian nuclear weapons are now in Belarus,” which quotes the statement of Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas, who became the first representative of the NATO bloc to publicly confirm that the relevant weapons are already on Belarusian territory. He warned that the risk of Western inaction was great and called on NATO to give a “tough response” to the steps of Moscow and Minsk.
FAS experts in their report, however, note that “if nuclear warheads were indeed moved to the territory of Belarus, this does not give Russia a significant military advantage in Eastern Europe.”
“Russia already has modernized nuclear warhead storage facilities in Kaliningrad and has long had the ability to target NATO countries with nuclear weapons. Apparently, the deployment of warheads (in Belarus.— “Kommersant”) is aimed at unnerving the easternmost NATO member countries and emphasizing Russia’s status as a nuclear power,” the authors of the review believe.
Recall that US nuclear weapons are deployed in five NATO member states: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. Senior researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, Konstantin Bogdanov, in a conversation with Kommersant, noted that “the main purpose of introducing joint nuclear missions and deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of an ally is the same for both the United States and Russia.” “These are guarantees to the ally, including emphasizing its special status, strengthening military-political ties and a signal to external players along the line of containment,” he explained.
In April, a new Military Doctrine of Belarus is expected to be adopted, in which, as follows from statements by Belarusian officials, it is planned to mention nuclear weapons for the first time. However, as Artem Butorin, head of the information and analytical department of the general staff of the armed forces of Belarus, recently explained, the document will not contain provisions on the mechanisms and methods of using nuclear weapons stationed in the country. “In our doctrine we declare political points that nuclear weapons are a means of strategic deterrence from unleashing aggression against our state,” he said (quoted by TASS).
Previously, Russian officials have repeatedly emphasized that there is no talk of transferring control over these weapons to the Belarusian side and all decisions regarding them can only be made by the President of the Russian Federation.
Alexander Lukashenko, commenting on this topic at the beginning of the year, said that the appearance of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of his country forced the “stunned neighbors” of Belarus to “lower their wings.” At the same time, he added: “Although God forbid not only me, but also the new generation of politicians, think about using these nuclear weapons. This is a terrible weapon.”
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