Marine exports of Russian diesel fuel in January 2024 reached a record 1.082 million barrels per day

According to Kommersant, in January, exports of Russian diesel fuel by sea reached their highest level since March 2023. Russian companies supplied about 1.08 million barrels per day (b/d) abroad, most of the volumes came from Turkey and Brazil. Senegal also broke into the top three largest buyers. In the last two months, oil companies were able to restore diesel fuel exports to a level above 1 million bpd; before that, it was declining due to repairs at refineries and the consequences of the autumn export ban. In February, diesel fuel exports may decrease slightly due to the suspension of work at the Rosneft Tuapse refinery.

Marine exports of Russian diesel fuel in January 2024 amounted to about 1.082 million barrels per day compared to 1.012 million bpd in December last year, according to Kpler data (available to Kommersant). This is the highest figure since March 2023, when exports exceeded 1.232 million bpd. Of the January volumes, almost half – 49% – was shipped from the Baltic port of Primorsk, 20% – from Novorossiysk, 10% – from Tuapse.

The largest buyer of Russian diesel fuel, Türkiye, has significantly increased imports. Turkey accounted for more than a third of supplies in January – 378.5 thousand versus 322.8 thousand bpd in December 2023. The second place in terms of import volumes is confidently occupied by Brazil, whose share is over 20%. Another 5% of supplies went to Senegal, which doubled its purchases of Russian diesel fuel and is still the third largest importer. However, about 165 thousand b/d were cargoes whose destinations Kpler has not yet determined. North African countries were also major buyers of Russian diesel fuel; in total, they accounted for about 8% of exports.

Exports of Russian diesel fuel fully recovered to a level of over 1 million bpd only in December 2023.

In September 2023, it decreased to the lowest level for the year of 740 thousand b/d, as the Russian government, in the context of the fuel crisis, introduced a ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel. Although the embargo on gasoline supplies was lifted in October last year, it remained on diesel fuel until the end of November. As a result, exports to Turkey suffered significantly, while Brazil managed to significantly increase its purchases.

Turkey and Brazil became the largest importers of Russian diesel fuel due to the cessation of supplies to Europe after EU countries imposed an embargo on the purchase of Russian petroleum products on February 5, 2023. The Russian Federation had to look for new markets and also strive to reduce discounts on the sale of petroleum products.

Turkey has significantly increased diesel imports, January figures are the second in history after August 2023, emphasizes Victor Katona from Kpler.

The rise in demand appears to be linked to the start of the country’s refinery maintenance season: “Tupras has one of its distillation columns in Izmir shut down until mid-March, while Socar’s Star refinery has started to carry out repairs on its secondary units.” All this will support demand from Turkey for at least the next three to four weeks, he believes.

In February, diesel fuel exports may decline slightly compared to January due to a decrease in output at the Rosneft plant in Tuapse due to a drone attack. In January, drones also attacked the NOVATEK refinery in Ust-Luga and the Volgograd refinery of LUKOIL.

In December, diesel fuel production exceeded 2 million bpd, which was achieved thanks to the completion of autumn repairs at the refinery and the lifting of the ban on fuel exports, estimates Victor Katona. In January, production was at 280 thousand tons per day (2.075 million b/d). Problems at the LUKOIL Nizhny Novgorod refinery primarily affected gasoline production, as the catalytic cracking unit was damaged. “Therefore, the only more or less significant reduction factor for diesel fuel comes from the Tuapse Refinery, but these volumes will only “manifest themselves” in February,” notes Mr. Katona.

Dmitry Kozlov