Make yourself at home, traveler – Business – Kommersant

The lifting of coronavirus restrictions in most countries of the world this year has led to a boom in tourism. However, the increase in geopolitical tensions caused by the conflict in Ukraine, the acceleration of inflation and new outbreaks of COVID-19 in China have led experts to question whether the tourism market will be able to maintain positive dynamics and what will be the main trends of its development in 2023.

Pressure recovery

According to forecasts Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), in 2023 the global tourism market will grow by 30%. But even this solid growth lags behind the dynamics of 2022, when, thanks to the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in most countries, the global tourism market soared by 60%. EIU analysts note that, even despite a significant market recovery in 2022-2023, it is unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels. Among the negative factors that will have a dampening effect on the market recovery next year, the EIU notes the following: conflict in Ukraine, rising inflation and new outbreaks of COVID-19 in China.

“Before the pandemic, China provided the international market with about 10% of all tourists, but now we expect that restrictions there may last until at least mid-2023,” the Economist Intelligence Unit said in a report. With a relative easing of restrictions and the restoration of the tourism market in China in 2023, the number of tourists from this country will grow to 59 million people. That’s double what it was in 2021, but almost three times less than the 155 million in 2019, when China became the world’s largest “supplier” of tourists.

The weakening of tourist traffic from China will primarily affect neighboring Asian countries, including Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The negative consequences of the reduced number of Chinese travelers will also be felt by countries in Europe and North America. “Even the domestic tourism market of China will feel the negative effect next year, as it was already in 2020-2022. This, in turn, will be one of the reasons for the slowdown in China’s GDP in 2023 – according to our forecasts, growth will be… 4.7%. For a country accustomed to the rapid growth of recent years, this is comparable to a recession,” the EIU report says.

Another negative factor that will slow down the recovery of the global tourism market in 2023 is inflation. “Hotels, bars and restaurants are facing rising prices for food, drinks and electricity. Airlines are faced with rising fuel prices, and airline employees are demanding higher salaries from them,” the EIU notes. After many airlines were forced reduce employees during the pandemic, now they are having a hard time are recruiting new staff. Lack of personnel in airlines and airport services led this year to massive flight cancellations at the height of the holiday season. London Heathrow Airport has already warned that such problems could continue until the end of next year.

Nevertheless, despite numerous negative factors, the market will continue to recover. In early December, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) statedthat in 2023 the global air travel industry will turn a profit for the first time in three years. According to IATA economists, it will amount to $4.6 billion. This is significantly less than the pre-pandemic level of $28 billion (2019), but much better than the situation in 2020, when losses amounted to $138 billion, in 2021 (losses of $42 billion) and 2022 ( loss of $7 billion). Another nuance of the recovery of the air transportation market will be a strong dollar against other currencies. As a result, the EIU predicts that in 2023, American airlines will be much more profitable than their foreign competitors.

If not a traveler, then who?

Factors influencing the economic component of the tourism market will also affect the consumer trends of the market.

The lifting of coronavirus restrictions after almost two years of lockdowns makes long-staying tourists want to get the most out of the opening of borders.

Polls booking service GetYourGuide, most American tourists want a more “authentic and unforgettable experience” when traveling. 51% of those surveyed want to visit places where they will feel like locals, and 45% believe that they lack “authentic experiences” when traveling. Most of all, representatives of the millennial generation want something original in travel — 67% of respondents. They are followed by representatives of the zoomer generation – 46%, then generation X – 40% and only 24% of baby boomers.

The vast majority of those surveyed (95%) said they were willing to spend part of their travel time looking for “new and unique experiences” – an average of at least three hours per day of travel. And if 93% of respondents are ready to save on some aspects of travel (inflation affects), then only 29% said they are ready to save on getting new experiences while traveling. “Today’s travelers are looking for a unique experience that allows them to see a new place through the prism of authenticity,” said GetYourGuide spokeswoman Carolyn Berger. regular trips that they will remember for years to come.”

The boys sat in the saddles

Interviewed by the magazine Forbes experts emphasize that, despite rising inflation, Travel continues to be a top consumer spending item, tired of lockdowns, self-isolation and closed borders. According to forecasts According to the US Travel Foundation, Americans will spend more on tourism in 2023 than they did in 2022. This will happen despite the likely recession in the US next year, which, however, is likely to be softer than previously expected. If in 2022 Americans spent $783 billion on tourism (including domestic tourism), then in 2023 they will spend $852 billion. This is not much less than the pre-pandemic level of 2019 – $867 billion.

Not surprisingly, as early as 2024, the US Travel Foundation expects US tourism spending to steadily exceed pre-pandemic levels to $889 billion.

Experts believe that another consumer trend in the travel market is the preservation of such a segment as luxury tourism, and this despite inflation and recession. According to a study by the international booking service Booking.com, 49% of respondents want to spend more on their trip in 2023 than before to compensate for lost opportunities during the pandemic. At the same time, 43% of respondents are ready to ignore the costs in order to get what they want from the next trip. Most of those who want to spend more on travel turned out to be in the age group of 18-34 years old – 80% of respondents.

Another trend for next year, experts believe growing popularity of responsible tourism, which used to be considered a niche trend. According to a survey by the booking platform Virtuoso, more and more travel agency clients want their travel to benefit local communities, the local economy, and therefore are willing to pay more to develop the local tourism business. The rise in popularity is also seen in another aspect of responsible tourism – environmental sustainability. 70% of travelers surveyed by Virtuoso said that, all other things being equal, they would choose more sustainable travel. 44% of those surveyed said they would prefer to use services or shop from companies that pay attention to protecting the local environment while traveling. According to the research company Euromonitor International“environmental sustainability will be one of the central points in the development of the tourism market as both participants in this market and consumers pay more attention to this aspect.”

Evgeniy Khvostik