Logoparks did not find customers – Newspaper Kommersant No. 172 (7373) of 09/19/2022

Last year, due to the shortage of logoparks in Moscow and the Moscow region, retailers, logisticians and distributors increased storage capacity by concluding built-to-suit deals with developers – the construction of facilities for a specific customer. But already in the spring and summer, the number of such transactions decreased by nine times: after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, retail largely froze or changed development plans. Now the demand for the purchase and rental of warehouses built to order is starting to revive, but the record of last year is unlikely to be repeated, experts are sure.

The volume of transactions in warehouse real estate in Moscow and the Moscow region in the built-to-suit format decreased nine times year-on-year and amounted to only 71 thousand square meters. m, calculated in IBC Real Estate at the request of Kommersant. According to CORE.XP, the volume of demand amounted to 170 thousand square meters. m, while a year earlier it was five times more – 868 thousand square meters. m. Knight Frank Russia says that this year only one transaction was recorded in this format – for the construction of a warehouse of 61 thousand sq. m. m. The total demand for logistics real estate, including speculative properties, declined much more slowly: in January-September, the volume of such transactions decreased by 2.5 times year-on-year, to 758 thousand sq. m. m.

The start of hostilities in Ukraine influenced the reduction in the number of built-to-suit transactions. “Retailers and e-commerce companies put development plans on the backburner, although at the beginning of this year they were ready to increase storage capacity,” says Ekaterina Nogay, head of research and analytics at IBC Real Estate. After February 24, companies are not yet ready to make serious investment decisions, confirms Andrey Postnikov, General Director of Orientir Group.

Last year, the situation was reversed: retailers, including e-commerce, logistics operators and distributors, due to a shortage of warehouses, could not find the required volume of ready-made space, and they had to order the construction of new logoparks, explains Ekaterina Nogai. According to Knight Frank, at the beginning of 2021, the vacancy rate in logoparks did not exceed 2.3%.

Now the interest of warehouse tenants has shifted towards ready-made facilities. According to Andrey Postnikov, now the most optimal for tenants is a flexible lease agreement with the possibility of a break, while built-to-suit does not provide for an exit from the agreement. In addition, a sufficient amount of secondary supply appeared on the market this year, adds Alexandra Shakola, Deputy Director for Leasing and Marketing at Radius Group. An additional increase in vacant space on the market was due to retailers, who this year, optimizing their costs, began to offer a large amount of space for sublease, says Konstantin Fomichenko, regional director of the industrial and warehouse real estate department at Knight Frank.

But the developers themselves were in no hurry to conclude built-to-suit deals. Andrey Novikov, Finance and Investment Director at Smart Development Group, recalls that such a deal implies a fixed rental rate at the beginning of the construction of the facility, and in the face of rising costs, the developer limits his potential income. But the general director of Espro Development, Vitaly Antonov, on the contrary, believes that for the time being, it is “reasonable for developers to build only objects under the order.” However, the cost of construction is already beginning to stabilize: at the end of 2021, it reached 65 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, by the end of September 2022 – 55-57 thousand per 1 sq. m. m, says Mrs. Nogay.

However, according to the observations of Vasily Grigoriev, director of the CORE.XP market research department, the number of requests from customers is gradually increasing. A Kommersant source in the real estate market, on the contrary, believes that by the end of the year one should not expect major transactions in the built-to-suit format: the final figure will be no more than 100 thousand square meters. m. In 2021, according to CORE.XP, this figure was nine times higher and amounted to 916 thousand sq. m. m.

Daria Andrianova