Lending is thawing – Finance – Kommersant

At the end of February 2023, banks issued loans to individuals for more than 995 billion rubles. This is still 9% lower than last year, although in a monthly comparison, the growth was 22.5%. So far, there is only a seasonal recovery of the market after the traditionally low January, and it is too early to talk about a full recovery, experts warn. In addition, there are still high risks of increasing delinquency.

At the end of February 2023, banks issued loans to individuals in the amount of RUB 995.1 billion. This is still lower than last year (by 9%), but in a monthly comparison, the growth for the month was 22.5%, follows from the data express monitoring Frank R.G.

• The main increase in lending in February was provided by the mortgage segmentas in previous periods. Thus, according to the results of the last month, 114.7 thousand mortgage loans were issued in the amount of 427.7 billion rubles. This is 1.5 times more than in January this year, but lower than a year ago by 15% and 11%, respectively.
• Growth compared to January was also shown by the segment of cash loans — by 8%, to 456.2 billion rubles. in monetary terms and by 5%, up to 2.26 million units in quantitative terms. At the same time, in annual terms, there was a decrease in volumes by 6.2%, while in units more loans were issued by 42%.
• The auto loan market continues to recover gradually, which showed the greatest failure against the backdrop of a shortage of cars and the departure of a number of foreign automakers last year. Thus, during the reporting period, 62.3 thousand car loans were issued (an increase of 1.7% over the month) in the amount of 79.5 billion rubles. (6.3%). The lagging behind the indicators of a year ago was 15% in quantitative terms and 18.4% in ruble terms.
• The only segment that participated in the study and showed a drop in monetary terms was POS lending. In February, loans at points of sale were issued in the amount of 31.7 billion rubles, which is 6.7% less than in January. Although in quantitative terms, the segment showed an increase of 12.5%, to 1.04 million units. The increase in the number of issues in pieces occurs against the background of the growing interest of new players in it. So, for example, recently about the intention to launch POS lending announced Loko-bank.

Experts attribute the February growth to a seasonal recovery after the traditionally low January. At the same time, experts forecast further growth in lending with caution – it will depend on external and internal economic shocks. “In February, growth in unsecured retail and auto loans is within the regular recovery dynamics after a decrease in lending in January. In the absence of external shocks and excessive regulatory pressure, we can expect continued steady growth in lending, especially in the segment of unsecured loans,” says Mikhail Polukhin, Director of the Financial Institutions Ratings Group at ACRA.

In terms of retail lending, the main drivers are still cash loans and mortgages, notes Natalia Bogomolova, an analyst at NRA bank ratings.

“Despite the restrictions on the part of the Central Bank in the form of premiums to risk ratios for risky mortgage loans, an increase in the level of provisioning for “soft mortgages from the developer”, macroprudential limits that limit the issuance of high-risk loans, we expect that these segments in 2023 will provide retail portfolio growth,” says the expert. Thus, the portfolio of mortgage loans will grow by 15%, cash loans – by 10%, according to the NRA.

At the same time, the risks of delay in the retail lending market are increasing, experts say. “The risks of delay are increasing due to the uncertainty in the development of the economy in the current year. In the event of a negative scenario and a long-term adaptation of the economy to new conditions, the risk profile of borrowers may deteriorate, which may lead to problems with servicing loans taken and an increase in overdue debt. Traditionally, risks are higher in the unsecured lending segment, but banks include these risks in the rate,” says Natalia Bogomolova.

Polina Trifonova