Ladies in court – Newspaper Kommersant No. 168 (7369) dated 09/13/2022

You will be surprised, but there is also good news. Here, for example, the cargo turnover of seaports in January-August not only did not fall, but also symbolically increased – by 0.1%. Dynamics is better than in seven months (see “Kommersant” dated August 11). Of course, geography matters: the Far East basin is growing faster, by 0.7%, while the Baltic continues to fall – by 1.3%.

In general, these figures are clearly dissonant with the declining mood of the market, which, after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, faced the refusal of entire segments of the foreign economy, in particular the world’s container lines and large European hubs, to work with Russia, as well as the loss of large foreign buyers of its products. There is no exact answer as to what compensates for at least the clearly collapsed imports to the Russian Federation, if not (well, for sure) declining exports. Detailed statistics and reporting are prohibited. One can only assume that the rumors about the rejection of Russian raw materials are exaggerated, and the replacement of the West by the East is really happening.

In this regard, the large-scale plans to build up the Russian civilian fleet that were voiced, in particular, last week at the WEF, do not look ephemeral. Thus, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Viktor Yevtukhov spoke about the growth of the plan for ordering civilian ships by 2035 by 440 pieces, up to 1.5 thousand ships.

The head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, at the same time noted the presence of a “request for expanding the shipbuilding agenda” from the Northern Sea Route: “According to the most conservative estimates, 75–80 ice-class vessels are required by 2035.” Leasing program of STLC for ships from 130-140 billion rubles. increased to 500 billion rubles.

But where to get these ships is a serious question. Some (and even many) types are simply not built in Russia. Thus, agriculture is in great need of sea exports, but the production of grain carriers in the Russian Federation will not begin before 2024.

Meanwhile, it has become impossible to buy a vessel in Europe or, for example, in South Korea, Andrey Severilov, head of the board of directors of FESCO, said in an interview with Kommersant (see “Kommersant” of September 6). The secondary market has shrunk and risen in price, ordering from shipyards takes time. At the same time, the players say, it is impossible to order large-scale ships, at least good ones, without subsidies. There are no subsidies yet. But even if there were, with foreign, even Chinese, shipyards, the problem arises of the presence of Russian state funds in the payment structure.

It is not only Russian companies that are “scooping out” the secondary market: for example, according to Bloomberg, the demand for used ice-class tankers in May-August increased 5 times in money terms and 3.5 times in units. The only consolation is that, judging by the type of vessels, whoever buys them plans to carry Russian raw materials.