Kazakhstan may adjust oil production forecast in 2023 due to power outages
[ad_1]
Kazakhstan may adjust the forecast for oil production in 2023 due to constant interruptions in the energy supply of fields. The second accident in a month at the power plants of the Mangistau Nuclear Power Plant led to a decrease in oil production in the country by 15-17 thousand tons per day. The reasons for constant accidents are the underfunding of the electric power industry, the poor quality of repairs and improper operation of equipment, experts say.
The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan will be forced to change the forecast for oil production in 2023 due to a power outage to oil fields. The ministry noted that oil production is declining in the Mangistau region, where several power plants were switched off last week. The industry experienced similar problems in July, due to which, following the results of actual production for seven months, the production forecast in Kazakhstan for the year was lowered to 90.5 million tons, or 99.4% of the plan. At the end of 2022, the volume of oil production in Kazakhstan amounted to 84.2 million tons.
According to the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, before the accident on August 10, daily oil production in the republic amounted to 232 thousand tons of oil, on August 11 the figure fell to 220.4 thousand tons, on August 12 – to 217.5 thousand tons, on August 13 – to 215 thousand . tons.
Oil production has been falling in Kazakhstan for the fourth day in a row due to an accident at thermal power plants of the Mangystau Nuclear Power Plant (MAEK).
MAEC operated the BN-350 fast nuclear reactor in Soviet times, but it was decommissioned in 1999, and since then MAEC has had nothing to do with nuclear power. On the afternoon of August 11, two turbine units at CHPP-2 (consisting of ten power units with a total capacity of 630 MW) were switched off. Then the third power unit at the MAEK TPP (consisting of three power units with a total capacity of 625 MW) was switched off. Both stations were launched at the end of the last century: CHPP-2 was launched in stages in 1965-1985, and TPP – in 1983-1990. In addition, due to accidents at large power plants, the load of GTPP Kalamkas (90 MW) and GTPP-200 Uralsk (100 MW) decreased. Partially retired capacities were replaced by energy imports from the Russian Federation. Inter RAO told Kommersant that the supply of energy from Russia to the western regions of Kazakhstan after the accident has approximately doubled, but in general, the volume of supplies to the republic has changed slightly.
Since August 13, partial restrictions on electricity consumption have been introduced in the Mangistau region, rolling blackouts are expected not only for industrial, but also for residential consumers. The producer and exporter of ammonia and ammonium nitrate, JSC KazAzot, announced on August 14 the suspension of its plant. At the same time, the company will start supplying electricity to the grid for the population from its own gas piston power plant.
The installed energy capacity of Kazakhstan at the end of last year was approximately 24.5 GW, of which 19.5 GW were thermal power plants. The capacity of hydroelectric power plants in Kazakhstan is about 2.5 GW, another 2.5 GW are solar and wind power plants. In 2022, Kazakhstan’s power plants generated about 112.8 billion kWh while consuming about 113 billion kWh. The energy system of Kazakhstan operates in parallel with the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia and the energy system of Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan). The volume of energy imports in 2021 amounted to 2.1 billion kWh.
On July 3, the first power unit of the TPP was already emergency shutdown at MAEK, due to which the power system of the Mangistau and Atyrau regions switched to isolated operation. Due to the accident, several fields in the region stopped oil production, and Kazmunaigas closed the Atyrau oil refinery for three days, which led to a loss of the company at $14.8 million. At that time, Platts estimated the loss of oil production in July due to power outages at 50 thousand barrels per day (about 210 thousand tons per month). The repair of the power unit of the MAEK TPP was completed on July 9, and it was launched only on the second attempt. The government of Kazakhstan said that they allocated $10.9 million from the reserve for the repair of the power unit.
Nikolai Gorbanhead of the CPC, on the consequences of the cut in production due to the blackout, 25 July:
“Losses in terms of volumes are quite small, about 60 thousand tons, due to the fact that shippers themselves did not hand over to us during this period. CPC accepted everything that we were offered to pump.”
Depreciation of power plants in Kazakhstan is critical for many facilities, especially in thermal power plants and in public utilities, says Sergey Rozhenko from Kept: “The reason is the systematic underfunding of assets, as well as the often very poor quality of repairs, which is superimposed on the concealment of information about the real state of affairs.” In fact, many stations are worn out, he continues. A separate reason for the increased depreciation is the cross-subsidization of the heat market at the expense of electricity. Thus, for many thermal power plants, the tariff for the population is five to seven times lower than the Russian one. Operators operate CHPPs, including in the summer, in order to increase energy supply and earn at least some repairs, Sergey Rozhenko notes.
The main oil production in Kazakhstan is concentrated in the three largest fields: Tengiz (production volume at the end of 2022 amounted to 29.2 million tons, the plan for 2023 is 27.9 million tons), Karachaganak and Kashagan, says Evgeniya Popova, a consultant at Implementa. The accident at the MAEK, depending on the duration of the elimination of its consequences, can make quite serious adjustments to the resulting annual figure, she believes.
[ad_2]
Source link
