It becomes spacious in warehouses – Newspaper Kommersant No. 211 (7412) dated 11/15/2022

The departure of foreign companies and the change in traditional supply chains have forced logistics and transport companies to reduce the volume of leases for new warehouse space by a third and think about optimizing existing spaces. Now empty warehouses of the company are often subleased at a price lower than that for which they rent themselves. Developers should not count on a recovery in the activity of logisticians in the near future, who are not yet ready to think about expanding their warehouse terminals in the face of uncertainty.

The volume of transactions of transport and logistics companies in the Russian warehouse market for the first nine months of 2022 amounted to 266 thousand square meters. m, a decrease of 32% compared to the same period last year (392 thousand sq. m), according to the report of NF Group. According to Viktor Afanasenko, director of the warehouse real estate department at Nikoliers, in Moscow the volume of logistic transactions this year amounted to 83,000 sq. m. m, yielding a multiple of last year, when it was 303 thousand square meters. m. Ekaterina Nogay, head of research and analytics at IBC Real Estate, adds that 40% of acquisitions took place in the first quarter. The total volume of demand for warehouses in Moscow in 2022 will not exceed 100 thousand square meters. m, the expert believes, also predicting “the release of excess space.”

In the first quarter, demand remained high due to inertia, but since April it began to decline, agrees Farid Madani, General Director of the Business Lines Group. The need for warehouses increases with an increase in turnover, but now the trend is reversed, adds Deputy Executive Director of Courier Service Express Maria Martynova. Yulia Shlenskaya, President of the KBT Service customs broker, attributes the decline in operator activity to a general change in supply chains, a decline in the offline and online trade segment. Market participants often import only the volume of products for which there is a demand at the moment, and sometimes under the order, such as goods from Europe, she explains.

Foreign companies have traditionally formed a significant demand for logistics services: now, according to NF Group partner Konstantin Fomichenko, they occupy 44% of the space leased by logistics specialists. For half of the operators, the share of such customers has not changed since the beginning of the year, for 30% it has decreased, for 20% it has increased, he adds. “Some companies continue to pay for safekeeping services, but the volume of transactions has decreased significantly,” the expert says.

The total load of warehouse premises of logistics operators for the first nine months of 2022 decreased from 94.4% to 91%, indicate the NF Group. Many of them, as part of the optimization, sublease space, Mr. Fomichenko notes. According to him, logisticians form 12% of the total supply of such warehouses. Many operators in 2021 and early 2022 entered into long-term contracts for the lease of warehouses, counting on the development of their business, explains Evgeny Makarov, executive vice president of Noytech Supply Chain Solutions. But in the end, part of the space turned out to be unclaimed, and it is not always possible to review contracts with warehouse owners. “To reduce costs, tenant companies bring them to the sublease market at prices lower than they were rented,” says Mr. Makarov.

Harold Vlasov, Managing Director of NC Logistic, says that logistics companies that have ceased their core activities are also releasing space. Some of the players were directly dependent on Western supplies and are now forced to curtail their business. “If formally there are 5% of vacant space, then in fact this figure is one and a half to two times more,” he is sure. Mr. Madani assumes that the amount of free capacity will continue to grow and this will affect the cost of rent, which may return to the level of 2020, and for some objects even lower.

Logistics companies are traditionally considered one of the drivers of the warehouse market development. According to NF Group, now they occupy a total of 4.51 million square meters. m is 11.8% of the total area available for rent. But the warehouse market should not count on the restoration of the activity of logistics and transport companies. Many clients, according to Mr. Fomichenko, are now considering expansion only for specific requests from clients.

Maria Martynova also sees no arguments in favor of building new space, assuming that the demand for warehouses in 2023 will continue to decline. She reminds that in the previous two years, against the backdrop of a shortage of space in Moscow and growing consumption in the regions, hubs were opened in Siberia, in the south of the country and the Far East. “Now they are used for new logistics routes, but no one is in a hurry to build new terminals,” the expert explains. Harold Vlasov states that the logistics market as a whole is highly dependent on the capacity of the southern and southeastern corridors, which is currently low. The ports of the Far East are congested, he says, with a huge accumulation of goods and long queues for shipment to central Russia.

Alexandra Mertsalova