Issuers share profits – Finance – Kommersant

Against the backdrop of the stabilization of the economic situation in the country, a number of Russian companies decided to pay interim dividends. Dividend yields approach 10% in some cases. Analysts do not rule out that by the end of the year the number of companies returning to pay dividends will grow, primarily due to the oil sector. However, the metallurgical sector and Russian companies in foreign jurisdictions may delay the payment of shareholders.

Short respite

Despite difficult economic conditions, international companies continue to actively pay dividends. Based on data from 1,200 of the world’s largest companies, Janus Henderson, a British asset management firm, estimates that global dividend payouts for the second quarter were $545 billion, up 11.3% from the previous quarter and an all-time high for the quarter.

The main volume of payments fell on Europe and North America – $165.8 billion and $158.6 billion, respectively.

Russian companies got out of the general trend. Against the background of wide-ranging sanctions, growing uncertainty and fears of a sharp downturn in the economy, many companies and banks refused to pay dividends. The most unexpected for the market became the refusal of the majority shareholder of Gazprom from the dividends previously recommended by the board of directors (total amount of 1.24 trillion rubles). From the payment of dividends refused state-owned banks (on the recommendation of the authorities), many metallurgical companies, retailers, even against the backdrop of a fairly high profit for the past year.

However, the most pessimistic expectations regarding the dynamics of the economy did not come true.

In mid-August, the Ministry of Economic Development in the basic version improved forecast for a decrease in the Russian GDP in 2022 from 7.8% to 4.2%. In such conditions, a number of issuers, including those that refused or postponed payments for 2021, announced the payment of interim dividends. In particular, dividend payments for the second quarter recommended Boards of Directors of Tatneft, NOVATEK, Bank Saint Petersburg, TMK, developer Samolet. In total, over 300 billion rubles will be paid for these issuers, according to Viktor Tunev, chief analyst of Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, including more than 80 billion rubles will be paid to minority shareholders. in October 2022. According to Dmitry Puchkarev, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, the dividend yield on the securities of these issuers will be 3-10%.

It is significant that a few months earlier the shareholders of PhosAgro and Bank Saint Petersburg moved payment of dividends for the previous year. “Phosagro did not fall under sanctions, moreover, the US Treasury removed fertilizers from possible restrictions under the general license. Market prospects have improved, the company decided to return to payments,” Dmitry Puchkarev believes.

Payers

At the same time, by the end of the year, market participants expect payments from many companies that traditionally pay interim dividends. First of all, this concerns oil companies, which can afford them due to high oil prices. Since the beginning of the year, the average price of Russian Urals oil was $82.6 per barrel, which is 20% higher than the average for 2021. According to Viktor Tunev, payments to shareholders can be expected from LUKOIL, Rosneft, Gazprom Neft. “LUKOIL, as we believe, will still distribute profits for 2021 towards the end of this year,” said Alexei Kokin, chief oil and gas analyst at Otkritie Investments.

Less large payments for the total amount Viktor Tunev expects from Magnit, Polyus, as well as another payment from Phosagro. In addition, market participants do not exclude the payment of dividends from Acron, Detsky Mir, Beluga and developers PIK and LSR. “There is a possibility, but very low, that ALROSA, the Moscow Exchange and MTS may pay dividends by the end of the year,” notes Mr. Tunev. According to him, the total amount of dividends in the fourth quarter of 2022 may exceed 1.5 trillion rubles, of which up to 0.5 trillion rubles. received by minority shareholders.

Refuseniks

However, a number of companies that previously paid regular interim dividends may postpone them for a long period. First of all, this concerns metallurgical companies and IT companies. According to Veles Capital analyst Artem Mikhaylin, a few IT companies have now abandoned them and are not distributing funds yet.

Metallurgists used to actively pay dividends, but due to Europe’s rejection of their products, they were forced to redirect it to Asia, which puts pressure on margins.

“Severstal and MMK are suffering from a drop in margins due to sanctions, the strengthening of the ruble,” Dmitry Puchkarev notes. If the current market situation persists, in his opinion, metallurgists will not return to payments in 2023 either.

According to analysts, Gazprom may pay dividends next year subject to such a decision by the state. “The company’s income from gas exports should be enough for an additional MET of 1.2 trillion rubles, and for investments, and for dividends to all shareholders,” Viktor Tunev believes. But this probability is assessed on the market as low, since it is easier for the state to withdraw profits through taxes. In addition, as Mr. Puchkarev notes, due to the deterioration of relations with Western countries, it became necessary to reorient gas supplies, which could result in an increase in the investment program.

Foreign companies with Russian roots remain in limbo.

Among those who could pay interim dividends are issuers of depository receipts X5, Ros Agro, FixPrice, Mother and Child, Headhunter. “Most likely, they will not pay dividends until they can re-domicile or re-register in friendly jurisdictions,” Viktor Tunev believes.

Vitaly Gaidaev