Investors vote for tenge

The activity of investors in Kazakhstani tenge on the Moscow Exchange has reached unprecedented levels. Last week, the volume of trading in this currency exceeded 4.2 billion rubles, which is several times higher than, for example, in the summer. The growth of the indicator is facilitated primarily by the increasing demand from companies and banks that switch to national currencies in foreign trade.

The volume of trading in the Kazakhstani tenge on the Moscow Exchange on November 18 with delivery tomorrow amounted to 1.13 billion rubles, the maximum for the entire time of circulation of the currency. In total, over the past week, investors traded this currency for 4.2 billion rubles, which is 7% higher than the previous week and three to four times higher than the values ​​of the summer months.

The increase in the activity of investors in tenge occurred against the background of a general decline.

According to Kommersant’s estimates, based on data from the Moscow Exchange, the volume of trading with major currency pairs amounted to 857.2 billion rubles over the past week, which is more than 100 billion rubles. lower than the previous week. In the autumn months, investors traded less only in the first week of November and September, when the figures were 735 billion rubles. and 782 billion rubles. respectively.

The current general decline was mainly due to the dollar and the yuan, the trading volumes with which decreased over the past week by 10-20%, to 378 billion rubles. and 275 billion rubles. respectively. In euro, turnover increased by 7% to RUB 201 billion. Decreasing interest in many alternative currencies. If three months ago transactions with the Hong Kong dollar were made for 300-500 million rubles. per day, then in recent days they do not even reach 200 million rubles. in a day.

Market participants believe that the main interest in the tenge is observed on the part of companies in connection with the strategic course of Russia to switch to national currencies in trade.

“It is easier and faster to do this with the CIS countries with which close political and economic ties have been established, for example, with Kazakhstan. In addition, Kazakhstan has become one of the logistics hubs through which a number of export-import operations of the Russian Federation now go, ”says Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. Valery Yemelyanov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, believes that the growth in turnover in tenge since the beginning of summer is due to demand from banks that buy foreign currency in the interests of business.

FROM elections in Kazakhstan Analysts do not directly link the rise in popularity of the tenge. Although, says Sergey Suverov, strategist of Arikapital Management Company, the re-election of the country’s president “will have a positive impact on the dynamics of trade relations between Kazakhstan and Russia and thereby increase interest in the tenge.”

Interest in the tenge is also growing on the part of private investors, who, after the announcement of partial mobilization, actively left the Russian Federation, including to Kazakhstan. But, according to Valery Yemelyanov, individuals “do not actively use the stock exchange to convert, especially exotic currencies.” Indirectly, the insufficiently high role of private investors in trading can be evidenced by the average volume of transactions with tenge, which in November amounted to almost 1 million rubles, which is almost twice as high as in October and only one and a half times lower than that for the yuan. In other exotic currencies, the activity of citizens is higher. For example, in the Hong Kong dollar and Turkish lira in November, the average transaction size was only 120 thousand rubles. and 40 thousand rubles.

The trend towards an increase in trading volumes in alternative currencies is likely to continue due to settlement restrictions, relocation of businesses and citizens, said Maria Lukina, chief asset management analyst at Zenit Bank Private Banking.

The yuan still looks like the most promising currency, but other friendly currencies, including the tenge, are expected to grow in trading volumes on the market.

“The Indian rupee, the UAE dirham, the Hong Kong dollar, the Turkish lira, the Belarusian ruble, the Armenian dram are also promising,” says Mikhail Vasilyev. For example, at the beginning of summer, the volume of trade in the Belarusian ruble hardly reached 100 million rubles. per day, and now the figure is 4-6 times higher.

Vitaly Gaidaev