Investors are tuned in to the lira – Newspaper Kommersant No. 189 (7390) of 10/12/2022

The exchange rate of the US dollar rose above the level of 64 rubles/$ for the first time in three months. This was facilitated by an increase in demand for currencies due to fears of a decrease in the inflow of foreign exchange earnings into the country, as well as a decrease in infrastructure risk. At the same time, the trend towards expanding ties with friendly countries and switching to trade with them in national currencies continues. To solve the problem of increasing the liquidity of these currencies, a draft law has been submitted to the State Duma to simplify access to the Russian market for foreign banks and brokers.

On Tuesday, October 11, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange for the first time since the beginning of July rose above the level of 64 rubles/$. During the auction, it reached the level of 64.61 rubles / $, which is 1.9 rubles. higher than the previous day’s close. As a result of the trading session, the rate stopped at 63.66 rubles/$. The euro exchange rate during the auction reached 63.05 rubles / €, the maximum since August 11. Relative to the local minimum set at the end of September, the rates of leading currencies rose by 10.4 rubles. and 11.8 rubles.

The weakening of the ruble occurs at a high activity of investors, atypical for the beginning of the month. The volume of trading with the dollar for tomorrow’s delivery exceeded 90 billion rubles, almost one and a half times higher than the values ​​of the same period in September. With the euro, the trading volume amounted to almost 80 billion rubles, almost twice as high as at the beginning of the previous month.

The rapid growth of foreign exchange rates is associated with the aggravation of the military conflict in Ukraine, which increases the risk of new anti-Russian sanctions.

Last week, the European Union under the 8th package of sanctions prepared legal framework for setting a price ceiling for Russian oil, which is expected to be introduced on 5 December. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, Western countries continue to try to limit Russia’s income from the export of raw materials, which in the future may reduce the supply of foreign currency on the Russian market and weaken the position of the ruble.

Despite the expansion of sanctions, they have not yet affected the infrastructure of the exchange currency market. In recent weeks, investors have actively exited the dollar and the euro due to fears of sanctions against the National Clearing Center, which would make exchange trading in dollars and euros impossible, and would also lead to a currency freeze on brokerage accounts. “The absence of such sanctions somewhat reduced the toxicity of the leading currencies and returned interest in them on the part of Russian investors,” Mikhail Vasiliev believes.

At the same time, the infrastructure risks of investing in dollars and euros remain, so the Moscow Exchange is systematically moving away from trading in unfriendly currencies and adding new friendly currencies.

However, the interest of Russian market participants is concentrated only in the yuan, other currencies have much less liquidity. In September, the average volume of trading in the Hong Kong dollar, Turkish lira, Kazakh tenge totaled 1 billion rubles.

Revival in this segment should be facilitated by changes in currency regulation. On Tuesday, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Financial Market Committee, submitted to the State Duma a draft law on simplified access to trading on the foreign exchange market for banks and brokers from countries that are Russia’s foreign trade partners and are not members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Currently, only residents and non-resident banks from the EAEU countries, as well as banks in Tajikistan, have the possibility of direct access to the Russian foreign exchange market. The bill proposes to give the government the right to approve a list of jurisdictions, credit institutions and brokers from which may be allowed to participate in organized foreign exchange trading in Russia.

According to Andrei Salashchenko, Deputy General Director of Otkritie Investments, the bill can create liquid markets in a fairly large number of friendly currencies. “I think that the initiators of the project already understand which specific banks from friendly jurisdictions could come to the Russian market to act as market makers for the currencies of their states,” he notes. Without the banks of friendly countries, the transition from the dollar to the currencies of friendly countries will be difficult to make. “The higher the liquidity, the more willingly the participants will use this currency,” emphasizes Mikhail Vasiliev.

Nevertheless, the rise of the dollar rate will continue until the end of the week, market participants expect. “Next week, exporters who need to prepare for tax payments on October 25 and 28 may become more active, which can support the Russian currency,” says Evgeny Loktyukhov, head of the economic and sectoral analysis department at PSB. But until the end of the year, the ruble has every chance to continue weakening. “Against the background of the plans of the Ministry of Finance to restore the budget rule, the weakening of the Russian currency in the next two or three months is more likely than its strengthening,” said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

Vitaly Gaidaev