Investors are calculating dividends – Kommersant FM

Investors are calculating dividends – Kommersant FM


Sber shares rose to their highest level in two years after Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s speech. On April 3, the securities added more than 2% and rose in price to 307 rubles, for the first time since January 2022. This happened against the background of the head of government’s speech in the State Duma. In his speech, in particular, he responded to the proposal of deputies to introduce a tax on excess profits of banks. Mr. Mishustin considered this measure excessive, noting that in the case of credit institutions it is more logical to redistribute additional income through dividends.

The market considered that Sber’s payments to its shareholders may be higher than expected, said Sergei Suverov, an investment strategist at the management company Ari-Capital: “Mikhail Mishustin’s statement suggests that the state can theoretically increase the percentage of profit payments on dividends. Sber’s current policy in this regard is to pay 50% of net profit. But since the bank is state-owned, it is possible that the state will insist on a higher ratio.

Thus, there is a redistribution of income from the credit institution in favor of the state as the main shareholder. But minority shareholders also benefit, so Sber shares are rising in price. Growth may continue in the near future. The mood on the stock market remains quite optimistic. Moreover, the company will soon publish profit figures for March.

And it is very likely that Sber’s net profit will continue to grow, even despite high interest rates in the economy.”

In February 2024, the head of Sber, German Gref, confirmed that 50% of net profit would be used to pay shareholders. At the same time, in the fall of 2023, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also did not rule out that the state could extract excess profits from banks through increased dividends. But if we were talking specifically about revising the policy in this part, then the shares would have risen in price much more significantly, noted Yaroslav Kabakov, director of strategy at Finam:

“Mikhail Mishustin’s comments provide some insight into next year’s dividend yield. It is unlikely that any revision to increase offers can be expected here.

At the same time, here the stories of Sberbank and the market as a whole are quite connected, because the credit institution does not completely belong to itself. That is, Sber’s quotes are not a reflection of the situation in the company, but to some extent a reflection of the market as a whole, and it is now a little overheated. In principle, the market may go into a correctional movement. Potential to go somewhere around 310 rubles. quite there. But you need to understand the peculiarities of the Russian market. Now if the “physicists” begin to overestimate the news related to the Prime Minister’s statement, they can easily push the shares above 310, 315, and 330 rubles.”

At the end of 2023, Sber’s net profit exceeded a record 1.5 trillion rubles. Of these, almost 750 billion rubles. must go towards paying dividends to shareholders.

Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.

Vladislav Viktorov


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