Indices took new points – Newspaper Kommersant No. 193 (7394) dated 10/18/2022

After a week-long break, the Moscow Exchange index exceeded 2,000 points, while the RTS index fixed above 1,000 points. During the day, the indices added 3.2-3.8%, and the leaders of growth were the shares of metallurgical companies, which rose in price by 4-6.7%. Private investors positively assessed the news about the completion of the mobilization in Moscow, as well as the reporting of companies. In the absence of further escalation of the geopolitical background, the ruble index may return to the values ​​of 2100-2200 points.

The Russian market began the new week with a steady growth of stock indicators. The Moscow Exchange Index during the day reached 2013.6 points, the highest since October 7. At the close of trading, he stopped at around 2012.85 points, having added almost 3.2% for the day. The RTS dollar index closed at 1,027.83 points, up 3.8% from the end of last week.

Market recovery was facilitated by the news about the completion of partial mobilization in Moscow, as announced by Mayor Sergei Sobyanin.

“If the announcement of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation in the 20th of September had a negative impact on stocks, then the message that mobilization was completed in Moscow could have had the opposite effect,” says Mikhail Bespalov, an analyst at KSP Capital Asset Management. Adds optimism to investors, according to the managing director of the department for working with shares of the management company “Sistema Capital” Konstantin Asaturov, unfulfilled terrible forecasts for sanctions.

The bull market was played on a wide range of securities. As a result of the day, the most liquid securities added 1.6-5% in price. At the same time, shares of companies in the metallurgical industry — MMK, NLMK, Severstal, MMC Norilsk Nickel — were among the leaders of growth, having risen in price by 4.4–6.8%. The active growth of these shares, which have been outsiders in recent months, was facilitated by published in recent days, the reporting of companies, which turned out to be noticeably better than expected.

However, the volume of trading on the stock exchange remains low. On Monday, it amounted to 32.2 billion rubles, a quarter higher than the previous week, but still below the average level of the first half of September (more than 45 billion rubles). “Individuals are mostly returning to the market, while institutional investors continue to pause and observe the process from the outside,” notes Konstantin Asaturov.

Recovery is also observed in the foreign exchange market. During trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar rate fell by 80 kopecks, to the level of 61.3 rubles/$.

At the end of the day, it stopped near the mark of 61.65 rubles/$. At the same time, the euro exchange rate rose by only 9 kopecks during the day, to 60.8 rubles/€. The American currency repeats the movement of the world market, where the DXY index (the dollar against the six leading currencies) fell by 1.2% to 112 points. “The key factor that can determine the further dynamics of the US currency rate will be the approaching tax period in the Russian market,” notes Evgeny Loktyukhov, head of the economic and sectoral analysis department at PSB. Given the low trading activity in the first half of the month, the expert does not exclude an increase in the supply of foreign currency from exporters, which may lower the dollar to the lower limit of the range of 60-62 rubles/$.

Regarding the situation on the stock market, its participants speak more cautiously. According to Mikhail Bespalov, the market is influenced by a large number of factors that are difficult to predict. “The situation with the largest economies of the West, which are slowly but surely moving towards recession, is unclear, and this creates risks for energy prices, which historically have a strong influence on Russian assets,” Mr. Asaturov notes. At the same time, if there is no aggravation of the geopolitical background, the growth of the market may continue. “In the absence of new uncertainty, the market may continue to recover to the levels of 2100-2200 points on the MOEX index,” said Viktor Tunev, chief analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments. Moreover, at the end of October, dividends from Gazprom and a number of other companies will begin to flow to the market, which may contribute to positive dynamics until the end of the year.

Vitaly Gaidaev