In the first quarter of 2024, developers in Moscow launched a third fewer new residential projects

Limited buyer activity, increased prices for loans for developers, as well as risks of overstocking led to a reduction in development activity. In Moscow alone, developers brought to the market in the first quarter of 2024 a third fewer new projects than a year earlier. The trend is clearly visible in the mass segment, where not a single project was launched in January-March.

In the first quarter of 2024, developers in Moscow launched 12 new residential projects – this is a third less year-on-year, according to calculations by the Metrium real estate agency. The company adds that this figure is the minimum over the past five years. The Miel Group of Companies calculated that in Moscow and the Moscow region in January-March of this year, a total of 23.1 thousand apartments in new buildings went on sale, which is 28.9% less year-on-year. Compared to the fourth quarter, the value decreased threefold.

Developers are reducing the volume of supply to maintain the balance of supply and demand against the background of the high key rate of the Central Bank, says Yulia Ibragimova, director of the mortgage center of the Miel Group of Companies. In the first quarter, the total area of ​​new residential buildings for sale in Moscow and the region amounted to 1.4 million square meters. m, in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region – 665 thousand sq. m. m, which is lower by 38.6% and 27.7% year-on-year, respectively, notes the head of Cyan.Analytics, Alexey Popov.

Managing partner of Osnova Group of Companies Oleg Kolchenko explains the current slowdown in the pace of launching new projects by the fact that many of them appeared last year. Commercial Director of Regions Development Liliya Artsibasheva notes that in conditions of expensive lending, developers are focused mainly on the construction of new buildings within existing complexes. A number of developers may be revising their withdrawal plans and taking into account project financing rates, adds Ksenia Tsaplina, director of the department of analytics and sales planning of GC FSK.

The head of the marketing research and analytics department of Glavstroy, Elizaveta Rodina, says that at the end of the first quarter of 2024, 2.8 million square meters were sold within the old borders of Moscow. m of apartments and apartments, which is 1% more year-on-year and 4% higher than in January. Alexey Popov assumes that the volume of new residential buildings on the market will continue to decline, as the volume of unsold apartments is growing, which could lead to overstocking of the market. Managing Director of the Metrium company Ruslan Syrtsov draws attention to the fact that, due to the high Central Bank rate, preferential mortgages have ceased to be a driving factor in the market since December last year.

According to Dataflat.ru, the number of concluded equity participation agreements (EPA) in Moscow and the Moscow region in February-March was 4.64% (19.9 thousand) less than a year earlier, or 19.9 thousand.

Mr. Syrtsov calls the second factor the return of VAT from January of this year for developers of apartment complexes sold under DDU. Developers, according to him, have already reduced their activity in launching new projects: innovation implies either an increase in the cost of implementation or a decrease in the margins of developers. Although Est-a-Tet partner Vladimir Morebis believes that the apartments retain a certain popularity both among buyers and developers. Glorax notes that developers are not seeking to increase the share of apartments in their portfolio due to their uncertain legal status.

None of the projects launched in the first quarter in Moscow, according to Metrium, belongs to the mass segment. Executive Director of NDV Supermarket Real Estate Tatyana Podkidysheva notes that now the comfort class offer forms 44.3% of the total volume of primary sales in the Moscow real estate market. Over the year, the figure decreased by 0.6 percentage points. At the same time, in premium class projects, the average area of ​​apartments, according to expert observations, decreased by 5.4% over the year, to 99.5 square meters. m, in business class – by 4.4%, up to 63.5 sq. m. This is facilitated by an increase in the supply of small lots – studios and “euro-bedrooms”.

Alexandra Mertsalova