in June, banks issued loans to individuals for a record amount of 1.47 trillion rubles.

At the end of June 2023, banks issued loans to individuals for a record amount of 1.47 trillion rubles. However, the market is demonstrating a slowdown in growth rates, while mortgages and car loans remain strong. Experts talk about the exhaustion of the effect of pent-up demand and about regulatory tightening. Nevertheless, the market may be supported by the weakening of the ruble.

According to the results of June 2023, banks issued loans to individuals for a total of 1.47 trillion rubles, follows from the express monitoring data Frank RG. This is a record result for the entire period of observation and is 5% higher than in May of this year. However, the growth rate of the market turned out to be slower than in the previous month, when the indicator exceeded 7%.

According to the results of the past month, only mortgage: 168.2 thousand loans in the amount of 639.5 billion rubles. These results are respectively 7% and 9% higher than in May. The growth rates in the monthly comparison were also higher than in May: then both indicators grew by only 3% compared to April.

Segment growth slowed down car loans, which showed record growth rates in April and May. However, the performance of the segment (85.8 thousand car loans for the amount of 128 billion rubles) still exceeds even the performance of the record year 2021. However, on a monthly basis, growth was 5% and 8%, respectively, which is comparable to growth rates in May versus April (6% and 8%, respectively). For comparison, in April versus March, the market grew by 10% in quantitative terms and by 13% in monetary terms.

POS lending according to the results of June, it retained growth rates similar to those in May. Thus, during the reporting period, 1.149 million loans were issued in retail outlets in the amount of 27.7 billion rubles. In a monthly comparison, the growth was 4% and 5%, respectively.

And the segment that occupies a large share of the consumer lending market cash loans showed the weakest dynamics. So, in June, 3.176 million cash loans were issued in the amount of 667 billion rubles. In terms of volume, this is only 1% higher than in the previous month, but in quantitative terms, there was a decrease of 3%.

Experts are reserved about the potential for market growth consumer lending in the second half of the year: the factors stimulating demand are gradually fading away, while the regulatory ones are becoming tougher. According to various estimates, at the end of the year, growth could reach 15–20%, depending on the segment.

In car loans, we can talk about the exhaustion of pent-up demand, which was most noticeable in the segment in 2023, says Valery Piven, head of the financial institutions rating group at ACRA. The mortgage market will largely depend on rates – in the event of an increase in the rate of the Central Bank, even preferential programs will not be able to ensure growth rates, he believes. “The unsecured lending segment looks more interesting, but its growth prospects may face regulatory restrictions,” the expert notes.

However, one should not expect a radical decrease in activity on the market.

“Against the background of the depreciation of the ruble, an additional jump in consumer activity in relation to durable goods is possible. In general, the market potential is quite good, given that borrowers with a low debt load are actively entering the market: against the backdrop of stagnation of income and rising prices, the share of citizens who are forced to resort to borrowed funds to make large purchases is growing,” said the managing director of the NKR rating agency Mikhail Doronkin.

Polina Trifonova