In cramped conditions, but in a new building – Newspaper Kommersant No. 195 (7396) dated 10/20/2022

The predicted increase in the provision of Russians with apartments and houses by almost 11% by 2030 will not be able to significantly improve their living conditions. This growth largely ensures the active commissioning of small apartments. In Moscow alone, in recent years, the area of ​​housing has become a quarter smaller, and studios already form a third of the supply. Such options are in demand due to lower prices, but are not suitable for many families. However, the excess of small-sized apartments will subsequently lead to the formation of an illiquid supply, which will put serious pressure on the entire market.

The provision of Russians with residential units by 2030 may reach 1.24 per household, an increase of 10.7% compared to 2021 (1.12), the Institute for Urban Economics (IEG) predicts. This is the baseline scenario, which includes the housing commissioning targets of the Housing and Urban Environment project. But such dynamics does not indicate an improvement in the living conditions of the population, analysts say. Executive Director of the IUE Foundation Tatyana Polidi calls active construction of small apartments one of the key factors in the growth in the provision of housing units: over ten years, the average area of ​​​​apartments in new buildings has decreased by 16.6%, to 52.3 square meters. m.

This reduction is especially evident in Moscow. According to the calculations of Natalia Kuznetsova, General Director of NDV Real Estate Supermarket, now the average area in comfort-class new buildings within the old boundaries of the capital is 46 sq. m, which is less by 9.5% a year earlier and by 25% than three years ago. Nadezhda Korkka, managing partner of Metrium, adds that since 2020 the share of studios in new buildings has grown from 9% to 20.5%, in the mass segment such lots form 30% of offers. There is a high demand for such a format now, the expert notes.

Studios are most actively sold during crises, explains the head of the center for new buildings at the Etazhi company, Sergey Zaitsev. The popularity of such formats decreases during periods of increasing housing affordability, but now the situation is reversed. The 2020-2021 price surge due to subsidized mortgage programs led to the first significant decline in housing affordability in 13 years, according to EGI calculations. The actual demand for housing in 2021 amounted to 13% of the needs of citizens. “The potential need is many times greater than the actual demand, since more spacious housing is not available, and small housing is not needed,” explains Tatyana Polidi.

Now almost 30% of households consisting of four or more people have one or two rooms, 50% of families of three people live in similar conditions, according to the EGI calculations. Therefore, according to the fund, the commissioning of small-sized apartments does not solve the housing problems of the population. The co-owner of the Rodina group, Vladimir Shchekin, calls students and single people the main audience for such a proposal. According to him, the studios are also in demand among investors who rent out such areas.

Ms. Polidi believes that strong demand has already led to an oversupply of small apartments in unattractive areas on the outskirts of cities. “Looking forward, a large amount of illiquid supply will become a problem: supply in the segment of second-hand housing and rental will clearly exceed demand, which in turn will create pressure on prices,” she predicts. According to Inkom-Nedvizhimost, in the structure of the rental offer on the Moscow market, the share of studios has grown from 5% to 10% over the past year alone. Growth is also observed in the structure of the secondary offer for sale. According to consultants, such an asset can still be sold without financial losses. Sergei Zaitsev calls the less popular studio format in corridor-type houses on the outskirts of cities with underdeveloped infrastructure.

To solve the problem with the current imbalance in the housing market, according to Tatiana Polidi, it is possible through the development of its alternative forms, including the promotion of self-construction of individual and low-rise houses by the population, the creation of a civilized rental market. The second area of ​​work, according to the expert, may be a technological update in construction, in which developers will direct part of the profits to the development of projects. This process, according to Ms. Polidi, will be partly stimulated by the recession that has begun, which naturally intensifies the competition between businesses and consumers.

Alexandra Mertsalova