Imports of goods in containers to Russia began to decline

Imports of goods in containers to Russia, which had previously been growing rapidly, began to decline. In December, instead of the traditional pre-New Year rise, there was a decline, which analysts attribute to a decrease in car imports, a high Central Bank rate and a weakening of the ruble in the fall. In January, there will also be no usual peak in imports before the Chinese New Year, and a restoration of container supplies can be expected by spring.

In December 2023, rail exports of containers exceeded imports for the first time in 2023, according to a study by the Center for Price Indexes (CPI, which tracks rates for the provision of railcars). This is due to a reduction in container imports, primarily in the ports of the Far East. In December, loaded container exports amounted to 142.5 thousand TEU, while imports stood at 134.4 thousand TEU. The reduction in imports occurred despite the fact that they usually increase in December before the New Year holidays. Market participants have previously been surprised that the pre-New Year season does not show the usual signs of revival (see “Kommersant” from 13 And 27 November 2023).

JSC Russian Railways questions this statistics. According to the company, imports of loaded containers via the railway network in December amounted to 140.3 thousand TEU and exceeded exports (131.7 thousand TEU). “The average monthly volume of import transportation of loaded containers in 2023 amounted to 140.8 thousand TEU, export traffic – 129.4 thousand TEU,” adds Russian Railways.

Compared to November, CCI notes, in December container supplies to Russia of cars (by 20%, to 29 thousand TEU), electrical household appliances (by 12%, to 7.3 thousand TEU), paper and pulp ( by 15%, up to 3.3 thousand TEU). The most noticeable increase, by 59%, was observed in the supply of footwear (4 thousand TEU).

Market participants are more likely to confirm the trend towards cooling container imports.

“By the end of 2023, import shipments by rail really began to slow down,” says FESCO Director of Strategy and Development Maxim Shishkov. “This was due to seasonal factors and a slowdown in vehicle supplies.” At the same time, export shipments were quite stable, he says. According to Mr. Shishkov, at the end of 2023, import shipments exceeded exports by 1.6 times. Previously, export shipments in Russia did not exceed import shipments in volume, he notes.

The drop in import volumes in December is completely atypical, says Roman Shagalov, an analyst at the Central Research Center, but this year it is associated with a general slowdown in consumer activity due to the high key rate of the Central Bank, as well as the strong weakening of the ruble in the fall. Because of this, some importers may have canceled or delayed purchases of goods, he adds.

RTSB-RUS Sales Director Evgeniy Barkov says that the company has recorded a drop in import traffic since approximately mid-2023. “This applies not only to rail container transport, but to the logistics industry as a whole,” he says. “This was influenced by both geopolitical factors and a decrease in purchasing power, as well as the difficult economic situation in China and weak subsidies for imported rail transport.” Also, he adds, geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea have negatively affected the cost and stability of deep sea routes: “As a result, imports in maritime transport have also decreased significantly.”

In 2020–2023, logistics flows changed dramatically many times, say Delo Group of Companies, and it is impossible to draw conclusions from one month’s statistics. “It is obvious that the actual volume of container transportation to the east is lower than the demand from our customers,” the company says. “We estimate the need for an increase in export container transportation to the east at more than 10%, at least 25 pairs of trains per day, which corresponds to the planned for 2024, an increase in the carrying capacity of JSC Russian Railways to the east.” There are no restrictions on imports from the infrastructure, the Delo Group notes, “an effective technology for export from ports has been organized.”

According to analysts, no growth in imports is expected in winter. “Traditionally, high volumes of container imports are observed in January, as all shippers try to make it before the start of the Chinese New Year,” says Mr. Shagalov. “But this January you shouldn’t expect a seasonal peak: consumer activity is low, and containers take much longer to be reloaded due to weather conditions and delays in the delivery of platforms.” According to his estimates, a recovery in import volumes is expected no earlier than spring.

Natalya Skorlygina