Imports of all wines to Russia in July rose sharply ahead of tariff hikes

The expectation of market participants to increase duties on wines from unfriendly countries allowed to increase purchases before the entry into force of the measure. In July, the import of all wines to Russia exceeded 45.5 million liters, breaking the monthly record since the beginning of 2023, and the increase in supplies from Italy allowed the country to again bypass Georgia in the import of still wines. In September-October, importers are already waiting for a reduction in imports and a decrease in demand for European wines due to rising prices.

Imports of all wines to Russia in July, a month before the increase in duties on wines from unfriendly countries, exceeded 45.5 million liters excluding the EAEU, becoming a record monthly figure for 2023, follows from the data of market participants available to Kommersant. Relative to June, the volume of deliveries increased by about 17%, and by July 2023 – by 46%. In January-July of this year, imports of all types of wines to Russia increased by 42% year-on-year, to about 251 million liters.

From August 1 until the end of 2023, import duties on wines from unfriendly countries, to which the Russian government includes all EU members, the USA, Australia, etc., have been increased from 12.5% ​​to 20%, but not less than $1.5 for 1 liter The largest increase in imports before the increase in duties came from Italy. In July, the import of wine from the country increased by 56.6% compared to June and by 65% ​​year-on-year, to 17 million liters. As a result, in January-July 2023, the country returned to first place among suppliers of still wines to Russia with 35.17 million liters, slightly ahead of Georgia, from where 35.14 million liters were imported.

Alexander Stavtsev, head of the WineRetail information center, says that there have been talks about a possible increase in import duties on wines from unfriendly countries on the market for several months and large retailers tried to import as much as possible before the changes come into force. Today, EU suppliers work with Russian counterparties only on prepayment, and logistics has become unpredictable: instead of 40-60 days, delivery can now take 150-200 days, he adds.

According to Kommersant’s data from market participants, the first three places in wine imports to the Russian Federation are occupied by the X5 Group (Pyaterochka, Perekrestok), Magnit and Mercury Retail (Red & White, Bristol): they collectively account for more than 20% of imports since the beginning of 2023.

Fort Executive Director Alexander Lipilin points out that now the market is affected by active purchases of chains, which will continue to increase imports. In X5, “Magnet” and “Red & White” “Kommersant” did not answer.

Ladoga President Veniamin Grabar says that the figures for July are the result of orders placed by importers in May-June based on information about a possible increase in duties and forecasts for an increase in exchange rates. According to him, the company also tried to maximize the potential of its warehouses. In August, according to Mr. Grabar, imports will also be higher than last year, and according to the results of September and October, they may decrease by 15-30%.

The founder and president of Simple Group Maxim Kashirin expects that imports of wines from unfriendly countries will begin to decline markedly year on year in September-October. After selling the leftovers imported at the old purchase prices, with the same level of duties and increasing the cost of wines from unfriendly countries, consumers will switch to wines from other regions, he points out.

Veniamin Grabar says that the formed runoff will make it possible to make the rise in prices smooth, extended over four to six months. Simple Group, notes Mr. Kashirin, has raised prices for part of the range from August 1, plans to index the rest from September 1, and in early October, November and December – for certain products for which large stocks remain. According to Mr. Kashirin, the one-time increase in duties was exacerbated by the subsidence of the ruble exchange rate, as well as an increase in wine prices from suppliers in Europe and the New World. According to his estimates, prices for individual positions in the mass segment can rise by 25-50%, but the consumer will see the increase in “jerks”. Alexander Lipilin adds that importers and sellers are already reducing discounts on wines from unfriendly countries, and promos will include more Russian wines, as well as countries such as Argentina and Chile, which are not subject to duty increases.

Anatoly Kostyrev