HSE recorded a doubling of net capital outflow in the third quarter

Net capital outflows for the third quarter of 2023 doubled to $18 billion from $9 in the second quarter. This is stated in the report of the National Research University Higher School of Economics based on data from the Central Bank, which provides “News”. HSE experts see this as the reason for the weakening of the ruble in recent months.

Capital outflow refers to legal financial transactions: investments by Russian residents in foreign assets and securities, transfers of funds to foreign banks and purchases of cash currency. The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the outflow of funds on “suspicious grounds” in 2022 was at the level of $1 billion.

In the first quarter, the outflow of capital from Russia was at the level of $21 billion. That is, in nine months the outflow of funds could have amounted to $48 billion. According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasts, for the entire 2022, the outflow of capital amounted to $243 billion, or 13.5% of GDP . Thus, capital outflow this year has decreased significantly.

Leading expert of the Development Center Institute, Sergei Pukhov, who worked on the report, clarifies that capital outflow is mainly growing due to the actions of companies, not individuals, since export revenues are delayed. The head of the macroeconomic analysis department at Finam, Olga Belenkaya, agrees with the expert: according to her, payments for exports now occur with a long lag.

During trading on the Moscow Exchange on November 10, the dollar hesitates at the level of 92 rubles. A month ago, on October 5, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 100 rubles. The ruble began to strengthen after a decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by a number of exporters. The Central Bank also tied up strengthening of the ruble with increased sales of foreign currency earnings.

According to decree President Vladimir Putin, companies from 43 groups are required from October 16 to credit at least 80% of foreign currency earnings to accounts in the Russian Federation within 60 days of receipt. Of these funds, at least 90%, but not less than half of the proceeds received under each contract, must be sold on the domestic market. The norm was introduced to stabilize the ruble exchange rate.

Anastasia Larina