How exchange rates affect the Russian market for repair materials

A new round of weakening of the ruble and continuing difficulties with logistics led in July-September to an increase in prices for materials for finishing apartments to 8.3% year-on-year, and in some categories – up to 37%. The assortment of most DIY chains still consists of approximately half of imported products, and Russian manufacturers import a significant portion of raw materials from abroad. The rise in prices is also facilitated by the increased demand for materials in the context of an increase in the commissioning of new housing.

The cost of finishing materials for apartment renovation in the third quarter in Moscow increased on average by 5.7% year-on-year, to 8.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, in St. Petersburg – by 8.3%, to 9.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, calculated in Infoline. Since the beginning of this year, the price increase has been more pronounced: by 10% in Moscow and by 11.7% in St. Petersburg. At the end of 2022, the cost of finishing materials stabilized after jumps in the spring and summer, but this year began to increase again, analysts explain. An increase in Russians’ spending on such products was noticed by Focus Technologies, which reported a 10% increase in the average bill in DIY stores in October.

Infoline associates the current rise in prices with another wave of weakening of the ruble, since DIY chains import more than 50% of their product range from abroad, including plumbing fixtures and paints and varnishes.

These categories, according to analysts, in Moscow in the third quarter rose in price by 31% year-on-year; in St. Petersburg, varnishes and paints became more expensive by 37% year-on-year. Over the year, ceramic tiles in the capital increased in price by 13%, in St. Petersburg – by 20%, wallpaper – by 21% and 8%, respectively, dry building mixtures – by 13% and 22%.

Vladislav Mintyukov, Deputy General Director for Purchasing and Logistics at Vira, says that overall in the segment, price increases in the third quarter amounted to 10-12%, and for certain types of products – 20-25%. According to the commercial director of Glavstroy Regions Alexey Artoshin and the commercial director of Pridex Alexander Aleinikov, materials have risen in price by almost 20%.

This year, wallpaper manufacturers increased prices twice – in May and August, by a total of 12-14%, and now a roll of vinyl wallpaper costs an average of 2.5 thousand rubles, says Fyodor Orel, general director of the Palitra factory.

“With a further depreciation of the ruble, manufacturers will have to raise prices again, since about 70% of raw materials for wallpaper are imported from abroad,” he warns. President of the Paint Quality Association Sergei Fedotov says that the ruble devaluation alone adds 5% to price increases. Albert Popov, director of the Association of Ceramic Materials Manufacturers, also points to this.

Managing Director of Metrium Ruslan Syrtsov speaks of a decrease in the share of imported finishing materials from 50% to 35% since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine, but does not doubt the influence of exchange rates on prices. Albert Popov notes that 25% of ceramic tiles on the market are imported from India, Iran, Turkey, and China. It is often unprofitable to produce them domestically due to rising costs, he explains. Infoline believes that currency fluctuations will continue to put pressure on prices: purchases of imported goods at the new exchange rate are only now starting. Analysts predict a 15% year-on-year increase in value by the end of 2023.

Other problems at Infoline include a decrease in the stability of road transport due to a shortage of drivers and spare parts.

“Gypsum from Turkey, which was used in most dry building mixture materials, has gone out of circulation due to unstable delivery times,” says Vladislav Mintyukov. Distributors are forced to complicate supply chains by using parallel imports through neighboring countries, which has already led to a lack of warehouse infrastructure there, as, for example, in Kyrgyzstan, Infoline notes.

The rise in prices for finishing materials occurs against the backdrop of increased demand for them; for example, Russians who bought apartments in new buildings several years ago now have to carry out renovations. According to the information system “Our.Home.RF”, in January-September 31.7 million square meters were commissioned in the Russian Federation. m, which is 6% more year on year. As a result, as noted by Focus Technologies, traffic to DIY stores in October increased by the same 6% year-on-year, and Profi noted a 28% increase in demand for the services of repair teams.

Alexandra Mertsalova