Houthis do not attack Russian oil tankers

Despite the fact that the largest European companies have suspended the transit of oil through the Red Sea due to the increasing frequency of attacks by the Houthis, the largest Russian oil companies continue to actively transport raw materials along this route with the help of a shadow fleet. Thus, shortly after the attack on a Norwegian tanker on December 18, a cargo of Russian raw materials crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and several more such cargoes are now actively moving in this direction. In addition, a number of Russian tankers are already preparing to pass through the Suez Canal.

Russian oil tankers continue to make their way through the Red Sea straits after the Houthi attack on the Norwegian tanker Swan Atlantic. Despite increased shelling by the Houthis, who carried out a series of attacks on container ships and tankers in the Red Sea in November-December, Russian tankers are not changing their plans to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. So, a few hours after the Swan Atlantic was attacked by a UAV as a result of the Houthi attack on December 18, the Butterfly tanker heading to India with Rosneft oil crossed the danger zone, according to Kpler data. Now it passes the Gulf of Aden, which washes the coast of Yemen from the south. In this area, according to MarineTraffic, there was also the tanker Fjord seal, which was carrying a shipment of Gazprom Neft Urals to China.

Due to the increasing attacks by the Houthis, the largest Western container lines have suspended the transit of cargo through the Suez Canal, as a result, carriers have to use a longer route bypassing the Suez Canal through the Cape of Good Hope. This leads to higher logistics costs and an increase in cargo delivery times by several weeks. British BP also announced the suspension of transit through the Red Sea on December 18, after which not a single European oil tanker remained on the route to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, except for ships with Russian oil.

Now the Red Sea, after passing through the Suez Canal, is crossed by five tankers with Russian oil, which are scheduled to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on December 20. Among them are the tankers Nanda Devi, Lefkada (both with Rosneft oil), Cauveri and Sea Hymn (Surgutneftegaz), as well as the Ocean Thunder tanker with LUKOIL cargo from the Caspian fields. These cargoes are sent to India, which is the largest buyer of seaborne shipments of Russian oil. In addition, two more tankers with Russian oil are approaching the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean Sea.

After the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as a sign of solidarity with Hamas, the Houthis announced their intention to destroy ships associated with Israel or collaborating with this country. In November of this year, the Houthis tried to seize the Zodiac Maritime tanker Central Park of Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer, which was carrying phosphoric acid, but the US military managed to free the ship. Subsequently, the Houthis expanded their attacks on ships that do not have ties to Israel. According to the US Department of Defense, the Houthis have already attacked 10 ships in the Red Sea. Washington is assembling a coalition to strengthen military protection of ships in the region (for more details, see page 6).

Kpler’s Victor Katona estimates that about 10% of the world’s oil supplies pass through the Suez Canal. Over the past month, supplies have decreased noticeably as all European majors have suspended transit through the Red Sea. According to Mr. Katona, for Russia the Suez Canal and the Red Sea play a strategic role, because more than half of Russian seaborne oil exports, or about 2 million barrels per day (b/d), including both Urals and Arctic grades, go through them. In addition to Russian companies, Iraqi and Libyan companies continue to transit oil through the Red Sea. Victor Katona recalls that the Russian Federation is the only major exporter west of Suez that has not seen a decrease in activity in the use of the Red Sea: even in November-December, the transit of Russian oil remained at the level of 1.5 million bpd, decreasing only to the extent in which Turkey increased its purchases of Russian oil.

Dmitry Kozlov