Housing without buyers – Newspaper Kommersant No. 189 (7390) dated 10/12/2022

For sellers of secondary real estate, this is not the easiest period: the demand for their living space is limited, the supply is growing, and prices are falling. For example, in Moscow, according to Miel, the volume of exposure to apartments has grown by 10%, reaching the pre-pandemic level for the first time since 2020. But the market, apparently, has not found a bottom yet, especially in the context of buying sentiment.

So, according to the results of an online survey by IRN.Ru, almost 73% of respondents this fall are waiting for lower housing prices. 34.5% expect a reduction within 5%, the rest – for a more significant reduction. The negative trend is obvious: before the start of the military special operation in Ukraine, only 45% expected that housing would become cheaper.

The global crisis is just one of the reasons for this consumer sentiment. Another reason is the inorganic rise in property prices in the midst of a pandemic. Buyers are unlikely to agree to conclude transactions on a cooling market at declared prices without extreme need, which means that it is worth waiting for discounts.

This wave has not yet reached developers, and average prices are growing slowly, but slowly. Question: for how long? Here it is appropriate to recall the close relationship between the primary and secondary markets. According to analysts of “Etazhy”, 50-60% of buyers of new buildings sell their old housing to conclude a deal. It turns out that many will not be able to invest in the primary market without a profitable sale of secondary housing. The natural result in this case is a decrease in the number of transactions. Even now, their dynamics cannot be called encouraging: according to calculations made by Dataflat.ru on the basis of the Rosreestr database, in September, 2% fewer equity participation agreements were concluded year-on-year in the old boundaries of Moscow, and 24% less in the Moscow region.

Developers do not deny the problem. “Now in the country as a whole, 30-40% of the apartments in the houses commissioned this year have not been sold,” Alexander Ruchev, president of the Osnova group, recently said. But even if these areas have to be sold at a discount, it is not worth waiting for a massive start of sales in new facilities due to a decrease in the number of potential buyers. This conjuncture is a direct way to reduce housing commissioning.

The authorities have nothing to worry about yet: the rejection of new projects at the moment affects the statistics after two to four years. So much time is required for the construction of residential complexes. But this is still far away, while we can focus on the analysis of past successes. “This year shows that we are, in principle, successful in housing commissioning,” said Irek Fayzullin, head of the Ministry of Construction, recently, commenting on data on a 33% increase in housing commissioning in January-August. One can only guess what words officials will choose for the situation that will develop on the market in a couple of years.