Housing supply adjusts to migration and site availability

Although in general in Russian cities the supply of housing in new buildings increased by 8% over the year, the situation is not positive everywhere. The highest volume of construction per capita is in Krasnodar and Tyumen – cities with growing migration potential; the minimum values ​​are in Novokuznetsk and Omsk. In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the activity of developers is hampered by a shortage of development sites and a pause in the development of documentation for new projects due to the crisis.

In September 2023, in cities of the country with a population of more than 500 thousand people, there was 1.44 square meters per inhabitant. m of housing under construction, which is 8.3% more year-on-year, was calculated by Cyan.Analyst. The leader in the provision of housing under construction is Krasnodar, where there are 6.2 square meters per resident. m, or 4% more year on year. Tyumen takes second place – 3.46 sq. m, which is 28% more than in September 2022.

The provision of cities with housing under construction reflects not only the effective demand of their residents, but also the attractiveness of migration and the availability of free land for development, explains the head of Cyan.Analytics, Alexey Popov. Vice-President of the Institute of Urban Economics Foundation Tatyana Polidi notes that in the Krasnodar agglomeration the population growth rate in 2010–2021 increased by 37.8%. Until 2030, this figure is projected to increase by another 9.8%, and in 2031-2035 – by 12.9%.

In 2022–2023, additional demand in the Krasnodar market stimulated the flow of population from new territories and from Crimea (see Kommersant on August 19). According to Ms. Polidi, growth continues despite the weak economy of the Krasnodar agglomeration in terms of diversification. She calls Tyumen the opposite example: the city is growing due to the presence of high-paying jobs.

In third place in terms of the supply of housing under construction, according to calculations by Cyan.Analitika, is Vladivostok: there are 3.2 square meters per resident. m, which is an increase of 24% year on year. In the case of this city, the presence of Far Eastern mortgages at 2% per annum has an impact, says Tatyana Polidi. This factor also explains the 44% year-on-year increase in the supply of apartments under construction in Khabarovsk, to 1.47 sq. m. m per inhabitant. Glavstroy Sales Director Alexey Gusev calls the regions of the Far East “interesting due to the growth in the number of jobs” against the backdrop of a reorientation of exports and imports from Europe to Asia.

According to calculations by Cian.Analytics, in Moscow there are 1.32 square meters per resident. m is only 1% more year on year. The activity of developers in the city is limited: according to Ruslan Syrtsov, managing director of Metrium, they have brought 160 new buildings to the market since the beginning of this year, which is 27.6% less than a year earlier. “Some developers (due to the onset of the crisis.— “Kommersant”) in 2022, the development of concepts for new projects was postponed,” he states. Tatyana Polidi draws attention to the fact that the Moscow agglomeration accounts for about 13% of the population. According to her forecasts, on the one hand, this figure is unlikely to increase noticeably in the foreseeable future, on the other, last year was marked by an outflow of the population due to the departure of some Russians abroad. “In Moscow, this process was more noticeable, and now the displaced population will be replaced by residents of other regions,” she believes.

In St. Petersburg, according to Cian.Analytics, the supply of housing under construction decreased by 17% over the year, to 1.28 sq. m. m per person. There is a shortage of development sites in the city, so the activity of developers has partially shifted to the Leningrad region, notes Maria Orlova, commercial director of the A101 Group of Companies in St. Petersburg.

The minimum supply of housing under construction in “Cyan.Analytics” was recorded in Novokuznetsk – 0.05 sq. m. m per inhabitant. Among cities with a population of over a million, the smallest figure is in Omsk – 0.4 sq. m. Alexey Popov does not rule out that security in many cities will decline even further in the foreseeable future. “Buildings in residential complexes, the construction of which began at the start of preferential mortgages in 2020, will be washed out of the market,” he notes. Tatyana Polidi does not see any prerequisites for an increase in construction volumes in the near future. Deputy General Director of the Garden Ring Group of Companies Ilya Kolunov, however, expects a further increase in the volume of housing under construction due to an increase in the number of permits issued for the implementation of new projects.

Alexandra Mertsalova