Housing has reached real estate – Kommersant

Prices for apartments in new buildings, which have grown in large Russian agglomerations by an average of 76% over four years, have reached the ceiling, according to the Institute for Urban Economics. They expect that the cost of housing will not increase until 2030. Moreover, in some regions, apartments may even become cheaper due to a decrease in demand and the absence of prerequisites for an increase in real incomes of the population. But the authorities will not let the construction industry, which contributes to GDP growth, seriously collapse, experts say. Among the measures of state support, they name the redemption of unsold apartments from developers for their further transfer to rent or lease.

At the disposal of Kommersant was a study by the Institute for Urban Economics (IEG), which predicts that until 2030 housing prices in 17 large agglomerations of the country, including Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, Yekaterinburg, are likely to remain at the level of 2022 years or decrease. If there is an increase in prices, then the nominal one, not higher than inflation, is specified in the IEG.

Tatiana Polidi, vice-president of the fund, explains that in 2019-2022, the real cost of housing in these agglomerations increased by an average of 76%, almost three times higher than consumer inflation, which amounted to 27% over the same period. Opportunities for a further serious rise in housing prices began to be exhausted already in the second half of 2022, she says.

Metrium Development Director Natalya Sazonova says that, for example, in Moscow, prices in new buildings have increased by 68.2% over five years, inflation by 32.4%. Thus, Ms. Polidi notes, a situation has arisen in the country when, on the one hand, the affordability of housing is low, on the other hand, there is no steady growth in the income of the population, and the prospects for its increase in the largest agglomerations are not obvious.

This situation does not allow raising prices for apartments, Irina Dobrokhotova, managing partner at Dombook, agrees. Demand in the market will remain low for at least the next year and a half, adds Anna Mikhailova, an analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments. Natalia Kuznetsova, general director of NDV Real Estate Supermarket, believes that if prices in new buildings increase, then within 0.7% per month.

Expecting as a result of the reduction in the commissioning of new housing, Tatyana Polidi nevertheless believes that by 2030 the provision with them will increase and in half of the large agglomerations will exceed 30 square meters. m per person. Now it has been achieved only in the Krasnodar Territory and the Voronezh Region.

According to the unified information system “Nash.Dom.RF”, in March 2023, construction permits were issued throughout the country for 2.04 million square meters. m of housing, which is 1.7 times lower year on year. Now there is an excess of supply on the market, which affects the reduction in the volume of new projects and will help to contain a noticeable increase in prices, explains Natalia Kuznetsova. According to her estimates, it will take at least a year and a half to sell unsold housing in Moscow alone.

The developers themselves are counting on deferred demand, says Dmitry Golev, commercial director of Optima Development. Rodina group founder Vladimir Shchekin is skeptical of price forecasts for more than a year and sees potential points of growth in demand, for example, in the emergence of “a new group of well-paid citizens from among the military personnel.”

Natalya Kruglova, adviser to the general director of the RAD, notes that the decrease in the cost of housing is not beneficial for either developers or banks, since financing of projects currently being implemented was calculated on the basis of the price situation that has developed in recent years. Ms. Polidi believes that the authorities will seek to avoid a collapse in the real estate market, which also affects GDP growth. One of the tools to support demand, in her opinion, could be the purchase of unsold housing from developers by the authorities for social needs. Possibly, Natalia Kruglova adds, a special state structure will appear, which will transfer the repurchased apartments for rent or lease to those in need of better living conditions.

Developers, for their part, offer to extend for an indefinite period of time the preferential mortgage, which has become one of the main reasons for the rise in prices for new buildings in recent years. “But this is not the best option,” Ms. Kruglova is convinced. In her opinion, the high debt burden of the population against the background of a decrease in real disposable income, which may result from uncertainty in the economy, threatens with a wave of mortgage defaults.

Alexandra Mertsalova