Hello, grandfather yuan – Newspaper Kommersant No. 244 (7445) of 12/30/2022

At the end of the year, against the background of the weakening of the Russian ruble, the volume of trading in major currencies increased sharply. Over the last week, the total trading volume reached 1.25 trillion rubles, exceeding last year’s figure. Investors actively purchased US dollars, including on the eve of a long weekend. At the same time, the demand for currency swaps, which are used to maintain currency positions, has grown.

According to Kommersant’s estimate, based on data from the Moscow Exchange, on Thursday, December 29, the total volume of trading in major currencies (dollar, euro, yuan, Turkish lira, Hong Kong dollar, Kazakh tenge, Belarusian ruble) with delivery “tomorrow” exceeded 365 billion rub. This is 22% more than the result of the previous day. For the incomplete last week of the year, the trading volume amounted to almost 1.25 trillion rubles, exceeding the previous year (1.08 trillion rubles).

The increase in activity comes despite the completion of major tax payments on December 26, as well as a decline in business activity at the end of the year. According to a survey of market participants, the main demand for the currency is from large companies. According to Otkritie Investments investment adviser Alexei Deniskin, legal entities seek to provide themselves with raw materials and equipment purchased for foreign currency. Evgeniy Loktyukhov, Head of Economic and Industry Analysis Department at PSB, explains the increased demand by the effect of the end of the year, when companies need foreign exchange instruments to close contracts or minimize risks at the end of the reporting period.

The increased interest of companies in the currency is evidenced by the volume of trading in swaps, which reflect the amount of currency remaining in their bank accounts. This week, the average volume of one-day swaps with the dollar exceeded 225 billion rubles. against 100 billion rubles. a month earlier. The volume of swap transactions with the yuan in the last two days exceeded 340 billion rubles, the figure was higher only once, on August 26 (355 billion rubles). According to Vladimir Evstifeev, Head of the Analytical Department of Bank Zenit, the growth in activity in the segment of dollar swaps correlates with the increased trading volumes on the spot market. “Those bidders who have been actively buying the currency over the past few weeks are now holding it, placing it under the minimum income,” he notes.

High interest in the currency is also noted by private investors. According to Russian Standard Bank, the total volume of transactions with cash dollars from individuals on December 26-28 increased by 38% compared to the data a week earlier (December 19-21). “The increase in purchases of cash dollars is probably associated with expectations of a further weakening of the ruble, fueled by the general news background, including in terms of the introduction of a price ceiling for Russian oil. Interest can be supported by the ability to still make cross-border transfers with him, ”said Maxim Timoshenko, director of the financial markets operations department at Russian Standard Bank.

At the beginning of 2023, interest in dollar liquidity will decline due to the seasonal drop in imports, the end of the tourist period, and payments on external debt. “The supply on the market will remain high due to the inflow of export earnings from the sale of oil, gas and other raw materials. At the same time, we do not expect the start of buying yuan into reserves in January under the budget rule against the backdrop of insufficiently high prices for Russian oil,” says Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. According to Yevgeny Loktyukhov, in the absence of shock inputs, one can expect a recovery of the ruble’s positions and a rollback of the dollar exchange rate as speculative activity fades to the area of ​​68–70 rubles/$. Experts are waiting for a decrease in demand for swaps. The swap market, explains Vladimir Evstifeev, is rather a way of short-term management of foreign exchange liquidity, therefore, at the beginning of the year, the popularity of the instrument is likely to decrease.

Vitaly Gaidaev