Give coal a hook – Kommersant

The volumes of thermal coal delivered by rail to the ports of the North-West, remote from the main export markets, exceeded the volumes exported through the Far East, according to data from the Center for Price Indices of Gazprombank. With more marginal coking coal, the situation is reversed – the bulk of raw materials goes to the Far East. Analysts attribute this trend to the critical workload of the Eastern test site. Despite the fall in coal prices, the rates for the provision of wagons for it do not fall, which is caused by the difficult situation on the network.

The loading of thermal coal for export through the ports of the North-West in April overtook the loading to the ports of the Far East, follows from the report of the Center for Price Indices (CPI) of Gazprombank. 4.9 million tons of export thermal coal was sent to the North-West (6% more than a year earlier), while 4 million tons were sent to the Far East (3% less), to the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin ( ACHB) – 2.9 million tons (12% less). At the same time, export coking coal mainly went to the ports of the Far East: its loading increased in April by 22%, to 3.6 million tons, while 0.4 million tons were delivered to the ports of the North-West (by 0.9 % more than in April 2022), to ACHB ports — 0.3 million tons (56% more).

Natalya Porokhova, head of the CCI of Gazprombank, notes that the growth in transportation of thermal coal to the ports of the North-West, despite the complex circular sea logistics for deliveries to Asia, illustrates the achievement of the limit of the carrying capacity of the Eastern landfill, where the volumes of thermal coal are gradually being replaced by more marginal coking coal. Also, in her opinion, the fact that China lifted the ban on Australian coal, and steam coal went to India rather than China, had an effect.

The rates for the provision of gondola cars on the main directions of coal transportation remained stable in May, follows from the report. A slight correction of rates (minus 1.8% for the standard and minus 3.9% for the innovative gondola car) is noted on the route “Kuzbass – ports of the North-West”, “on which the maximum value of the indicator of profitability of operating gondola cars was recorded in April.” At the same time, the average value of the short-term rental rate for a typical gondola car on the spot increased by 2% compared to April. “The growth occurred due to individual landlords who raised their rates to the average market values, which in May are kept at 2.05-2.3 thousand rubles. per day for short-term rental and 1.9–2 thousand rubles. per day – for the long-term, ”the CCI reports.

Natalya Porokhova notes that the dynamics of wagon rates does not repeat the dynamics of coal prices: coal prices are falling, while the rate remains stable or grows. In her opinion, this is due to the limited supply of gondola cars, associated with a slowdown in turnover, an increase in the transport arm, and low rates of purchase of gondola cars by fleet operators. “Market participants report problems with traffic control on the railway network, a significant number of trains delayed from traffic in Kuzbass and difficulties with the passage of coal in the direction of the ports of the Far East and the South,” the report notes. “At the same time, operators have already adapted to work in under similar conditions and have long included such risks in their bets.

According to Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics, rates are not falling along with coal prices due to a slowdown in the turnover of wagons, a decrease in the efficiency of dispatching and a large number of abandoned trains. “Volumes of production of railcars are limited due to the reorientation of UVZ and a shortage of personnel, part of the fleet is being pulled to new territories,” he says. “The situation at the Eastern range is traditionally difficult, but it would be possible to carry much more if it were not for infrastructural restrictions aggravated by terrorist threats.” The situation in the Northwest, he notes, is less tense than in other directions.

Natalya Skorlygina