Gaseous circumstances – Newspaper Kommersant No. 180 (7381) dated 09/29/2022

The budget will receive another 2 trillion rubles from Gazprom. additional revenues in 2023–2025 by raising the MET on gas. We are talking about the withdrawal of 50 billion rubles. monthly, as well as on the adjustment of the MET formula itself. According to analysts, such withdrawals look acceptable for Gazprom so far, but in the future it will be more difficult for the company to maintain the previous level of profitability due to lower export earnings.

The government decided to additionally increase the mineral extraction tax for Gazprom for 2023-2025 by 600 billion rubles. in year. This follows from the amendments to the Tax Code submitted to the State Duma on September 28. The amendments also provide for an increase in the MET for all gas producers by redirecting revenues from the indexation of domestic gas tariffs to the budget (see Kommersant of September 20). The total additional revenues of the Russian budget from the adjustment from July 1, 2023 of the MET calculation mechanism and the monthly additional MET collection may amount to 628.3 billion rubles in 2023, 699.9 billion rubles in 2024, and 749.6 billion in 2025 billion rubles, follows from the financial and economic justification for the bill.

In an earlier version, the Ministry of Finance proposed more benign changes, assuming that additional revenues from the adjustment of the MET would bring the budget 28.28 billion rubles. in 2023, 99.945 billion rubles. in 2024 and 149.6 billion rubles. in 2025. This increase was equivalent to an additional indexation of gas tariffs by 3 percentage points annually in 2023–2024.

Recall that the Ministry of Finance included in the budget of the Russian Federation for 2023-2025 additional revenues from tax increases in the oil and gas industry, including an increase in the MET and export duties on gas and oil, as well as the introduction of an export duty on fertilizers and coal if high prices for these products persist.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, commenting on the additional exemptions from businesses in 2023-2025, said that we are talking only about excess profits of companies and do not concern the “basic tax burden.” “We made the account based on the fact that we will withdraw only a part of the excess income, above the cut-off level. This also applied to gas – we talked about export duties, now we have switched to the mineral extraction tax, ”he said. According to the minister, all tax proposals were discussed with market participants: “Of course, they are not enthusiastic, but everyone is sympathetic.”

The Russian authorities have already introduced a one-time “blotch” on Gazprom’s mineral extraction tax in September-November 2022, assuming a one-time take away from the company of 1.25 trillion rubles.

After that, Gazprom had to refuse to pay annual dividends for 2021, which were supposed to amount to 1.24 trillion rubles, or 50% of the company’s adjusted net profit under IFRS. Later, the company said that it expects to pay interim dividends for 2022, the base for its payment is 2.4 trillion rubles. An extraordinary meeting of shareholders, which must approve the payment, is scheduled for September 30.

Shares of “Gazprom” to the message about the increase in the severance tax reacted with restraint, falling on the basis of the session on Wednesday by 2.14%, to 212.8 rubles. for paper.

In the first half of the year, Gazprom showed record results, earning 2.5 trillion rubles. net profit, recalls Sergey Kondratiev, deputy head of the economic department of the Institute of Energy and Finance. Against this background, in his opinion, the withdrawal of just over 600 billion rubles. per year looks quite acceptable. However, it will not be easy for Gazprom to repeat the results of 2022 in the next few years. “The company’s export earnings will come under pressure due to a decline in exports to the EU, and the recent accident at Nord Stream will not allow a quick increase in supplies even if relations with Europe are normalized,” he believes. At the same time, contracts with other importers of Russian gas – China, Turkey – use an oil peg, and not indexation at spot prices, which will negatively affect the average export price. So, according to his forecast, in 2023, Gazprom’s export revenue may decrease by 19% year-on-year, and the consolidated net profit will amount to about 3.5 trillion rubles.

Tatyana Dyatel