Fuel prices have resumed rising
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The stock price of fuel returned to growth after the ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel. Thus, AI-92 and AI-95 rose in price by 2% and 1.3%, but are still at the levels of the end of spring – beginning of summer. In a number of regions, the fuel shortage that arose in the first weeks of September continues. Market participants and experts attribute the price correction to increased demand for cheaper goods and the expectation that the export ban will soon be lifted, which, according to oil workers, cannot last long without damaging oil refining.
After a sharp decline last week due to the export ban, stock prices for fuel returned to growth. According to SPbMTSB, on September 26, AI-92 and AI-95 gasolines in the European part of the Russian Federation increased in price by 2.06% and 1.27%, to 56.6 thousand rubles. and 58.8 thousand rubles. per ton respectively. The cost of diesel fuel increased by 1.17%, to 61.5 thousand rubles. per ton.
A temporary ban on fuel exports was introduced on September 21. It does not apply to supplies under intergovernmental agreements to Abkhazia, South Ossetia, the EAEU countries, and subsequently marine fuel, gas oils and middle distillates were removed from it.
Over the past week, amid discussions about measures to stabilize fuel prices on the domestic market, which reached historical highs in September, the cost of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline fell by 21%.
Kommersant’s interlocutors explain the reversal of the trend by increased demand for cheaper fuel and expectations of a quick lifting of export restrictions. According to the government’s plans, the restrictions will saturate the market with fuel and stop gray export schemes, however, most of Kommersant’s interlocutors believe that the measure will be short-term, otherwise oil companies will have to reduce oil refining, and subsequently fuel production (see. “Kommersant” from September 21).
“We expect that the market will feel the effect quickly enough, but then it will depend on the saturation of the market and on the results,” explained First Deputy Head of the Ministry of Energy Pavel Sorokin.
According to the vice-president of the Russian Fuel Union, Rinat Fattakhov, the exchange experienced “an expected rebound in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel after the largest fall in the history of trading.”
The reason for the increase in quotations was pent-up demand, which was also facilitated by the exclusion of a number of petroleum products from the export ban, he believes.
The expert believes that there are no prerequisites for a further rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, even under restrictions: “There is enough supply on the stock exchange, but gray exports are blocked.” Mr. Fattakhov notes that in the near future the demand for diesel fuel will begin to decline due to the end of the sowing season, while farmers are now provided with fuel.
The main reason for the rise in fuel prices on the stock exchange, according to fuel market expert Mikhail Turukalov, was the resumption of demand after the export ban, which was facilitated by a number of exceptions to the embargo. In addition, according to him, market participants believe that it will be short-term.
Against the backdrop of growing exports of petroleum products and problems with logistics, which led to an increase in fuel delivery times, a number of regions complained about its shortage, including gas stations. Due to rising wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, retail chain operators began to incur significant losses.
Now in some gas station networks and regions the situation has returned to normal, but in others there is still a shortage.
Thus, Bashneft assured Kommersant that its retail network is operating as normal: “Short-term interruptions in the operation of some gas stations are due to a multiple increase in customer flow and, as a result, rapid sales of fuel.” The increase in sales volumes at Bashneft gas stations is also associated “with the cessation of work of other retail operators or their sale of fuel at inflated prices,” the company says.
“I can say for sure that the situation in Dagestan is still stable,” assures the president of the Association of Gas Stations of Dagestan Yusup Charaburaev, stipulating that the effect of the export ban has yet to be assessed. “We have passed the threshold of the summer, difficult season. Owners of gas stations in Dagestan, even in such a difficult situation with high fuel prices and shortages during the tourist season, coped with all the problems and stably kept fuel at the gas station.”
As representatives of the two largest networks of gas stations in Crimea told Kommersant, the peninsula faced a fuel shortage after Ukraine’s attacks on the Kerch Bridge, but now the situation has “normalized.” Crimean oil traders expect that the introduction of an export ban will help saturate the domestic market with gasoline and diesel fuel, as well as reduce their prices.
At the same time, the Bashkir Oil Products (BNP) network, represented in the Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk regions, reported a fuel shortage at Kommersant gas stations. The problem has persisted for three weeks, they say, retail sales of fuel have now been suspended, but the network’s gas stations continue to serve legal entities under government contracts.
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